Race Analysis

California gubernatorial politics are enigmatic. Although Democrats have had a massive registration advantage in the state since the 1930s, they’ve only occupied the governor’s mansion for 28 of the last 84 years. A recent Democratic governorship came to a particularly inglorious end, as Gray Davis was recalled from office less than a year after winning re-election to a second term.

Davis was replaced by Republican actor and education activist Arnold Schwarzenegger. Schwarzenegger has had a tumultuous two terms, shifting to the left after being rebuked by voters on several cherished ballot initiatives. He left office with approval ratings hovering in the 20s and 30s. Combined with the Democratic lean of the state, that made it impossible for even a strong, moderate Republican to win in an otherwise solid Republican year.

Republicans don’t have a top flight candidate this year, and Gov. Jerry Brown is polling reasonably well. It’s hard to see a path to victory for the GOP under these circumstances.