Race Analysis

10/28/14 -- The polls here are sort of all over the place, ranging from a five-point Parnell lead to a nine-point Walker lead. Because polling in Alaska has been so erratic in the past, it is hard to regard this as anything other than a tossup.

10/19/14 -- The Democrats' gambit here seems to be paying off, as Walker is ahead of Parnell in multiple surveys. Alaska's polling tends to skew toward Democrats, so things probably aren't as bleak for Parnell as these toplines suggest. But he's still behind entering the final two weeks of the election.

10/1/14 -- Walker is now up on Parnell in two consecutive surveys. We’ll see if it lasts, but Alaska is a quirky state with a history of strong third-party efforts. Parnell should be worried.

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Sarah Palin has a penchant for shocking the political world, and her decision to resign from the governorship of Alaska was no exception. That left her lieutenant governor, Sean Parnell, as the occupant at 716 Calhoun Ave.

In 2010, Parnell drew a quality challenger in 2008 House candidate and former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz, but Parnell nevertheless won by over 20 points. Parnell looked set to cruise this year as well, but then the Democrats decided to shake up the race. The Democratic candidate dropped out of the governor’s race, and joined on as the running mate for an Independent candidate, Bill Walker.

We don’t have any polls of the race since the merger, and Alaska is notoriously difficult to poll in any event. Still, we take note of the fact that Parnell was well below 50 percent in three-way polling, and that the Democratic vote plus the Independent vote was greater than Parnell’s in recent surveys. Parnell probably still has a bit of an edge, if only because the state is so heavily Republican, but there is substantial uncertainty here.