We’ve talked about the big cold front that will blast through the East Coast Halloween night. But will it get scary cold or just spooky cold? And will the first day of November bring about the season’s first snowflakes?

I leaning on the weekend weather being more spooky than scary for its wintry-ness. Yes, it will feel like December and the wind chill will be fierce, but high temperatures may be able to manage 50. And while the mountains could get some snow (especially to the west and southwest), temperatures probably stay just a tad warm for flakes in the metro region.

Upcoming #cold blast is associated with a coherent vortex now north of the Arctic circle, as seen on tropopause maps pic.twitter.com/fMIbm8QZ7D

— Greg Postel (@GregPostel) October 29, 2014

The GFS model now forecasts highs in the low 50s Saturday afternoon in the D.C. area. A bigger factor than temperatures (or precipitation – more on that below), will be the wind, which may be sustained at 15-25 mph with higher gusts.

GFS forecast high temperature Saturday (WeatherBell.com)

Saturday night, the combination of the wind and cold temperatures, may produce widespread wind chills in the 20s. Will it freeze? That’s a question we’ll explore in further detail in a future post, but my best right now is that the wind will hold the actual air temperature above freezing around the city, but that our colder suburbs have a good chance for temperatures around 32. The GFS forecast (below) for Sunday morning lows seems reasonable.

GFS model forecast low Sunday morning (WeatherBell.com)

Temperatures Sunday may be a bit cooler than Saturday, struggling to reach 50, but winds will gradually subside so it won’t feel quite as cold. Here’s the GFS model’s Sunday forecast highs:

GFS forecast high temperature Sunday (WeatherBell.com)

The best chance for widespread freezing temperatures may come Sunday night into Monday morning thanks to clear skies and calming winds.

GFS model low temperature forecast Monday morning (WeatherBell.com)

GFS model shows very strong upper level system diving through North Carolina Saturday. Click to enlarge. (WeatherBell.com)

So what about snow and rain? Models are starting to back off from the idea of low pressure forming close enough to the coast for heavy precipitation late Friday night into Saturday. However, some showers are possible. In areas along the I-81 corridor (Martinsburg, Winchester, and Harrisonburg), some snow flakes could mix in but the mountains of West Virginia and southwest Virginia stand a better chance. Here’s winter weather expert Wes Junker’s take on snow possibilities:

The models all agree that a potent upper level system will dig southeastward towards the East Coast Saturday morning and that it will try to induce the development of second low somewhere over North Carolina which will then move off the coast. Most models are now digging the upper level system far enough south that they would keep the heavier precipitation and cold pool aloft to our south and southwest suggesting any snow would be confined to the higher elevations of the mountains probably well to our southwest. The models could shift north, so people living near and west of Winchester should keep attuned to the forecast over the next couple of days.

European model simulates snow at high altitudes of West Virginia Saturday (WeatherBell.com)

We’ll, of course, have additional updates on this wintry weather pattern Thursday and Friday.