October 29, 2014 - Ernst Inching Ahead In Iowa Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Branstad, The Iowa Institution, Cruising To Reelection PDF format Iowa Republican State Sen. Joni Ernst is inching ahead among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race and now has 49 percent to 45 percent for U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, the Democrat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Five percent remain undecided. This compares to results of an October 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing Sen. Ernst at 48 percent and Rep. Braley at 46 percent. Today's results show independent voters backing Ernst 50 - 41 percent. Republicans back Ernst 90 - 4 percent. Democrats go to Braley 94 - 4 percent. The reverse gender gap in this race continues as women back the Democratic man 50 - 42 percent, while men back the Republican woman 56 - 39 percent. Braley leads 57 - 36 percent among those who already have voted. Just six days before Election Day, 91 percent of Iowa likely voters who name a Senate candidate say their mind is made up, while 9 percent say they might change their mind. "As Election Day nears, State Sen. Joni Ernst is closing in on Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat. Her lead over U.S. Rep. Brue Braley inches up to 49 - 45 percent, giving her the momentum with less than a week left in the campaign," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. "Nothing is for sure, but one would certainly rather be in her shoes this morning than Braley's. One piece of good news for the Democrat is that he has a 21-point lead among those who already have voted. "Ernst's lead is built upon a 9-point lead among independent voters and a larger lead among men than Braley is able to muster among women," Brown added. "And, in what was a strongly negative campaign, she emerged from the mud-slinging with voters liking her a bit more, usually an advantage that tends to translate into votes." Iowa likely voters are divided on their feelings about the candidates: Ernst gets a 45 - 43 percent favorability; Braley gets a slightly negative 40 - 43 percent likability score. Governor's Race State Sen. Jack Hatch, the Democratic challenger in the governor's race, makes no progress in his bid to unseat the Iowa Institution, Republican Gov. Terry Hatch, who leads 56 - 37 percent among likely voters. This is essentially unchanged from the results of an October 23 Quinnipiac University poll. Men, women, Republicans and independent voters all back the long-time governor, while Democrats back Hatch 85 - 11 percent. Hatch leads 50 - 43 percent among those who already have voted. Only 7 percent of voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind in the next six days while 93 percent say their mind is made up, Branstad gets a 56 - 34 percent favorability rating, compared to Hatch's 32 - 29 percent score, with 36 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. "Democrats thought Gov. Terry Branstad might be vulnerable because roughly half of Iowa voters thought he had been in office too long," Brown said. "But his reelection was never in doubt. One key indication: more than a third of voters say they don't know enough about his Democratic opponent to have an opinion. They never bothered to find out because they knew they would be voting for Branstad." From October 22 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 817 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jack Hatch the Democrat and Terry Branstad the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Hatch or Branstad? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS.................................... Already Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted Hatch 37% 1% 85% 30% 32% 42% 50% Branstad 56 98 11 57 63 49 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 5 1 4 11 3 7 6 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jack Hatch the Democrat and Terry Branstad the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Hatch or Branstad? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 29 Oct 23 Oct 15 Sep 18 2014 2014 2014 2014 Hatch 37 37 39 37 Branstad 56 55 54 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 5 5 6 3 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Hatch Branstad Mind made up 93% 93% 93% Might change 7 7 7 DK/NA - - - TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................. CANDIDATE CHOSEN.............. Oct 29 Oct 23 Oct 15 Sep 18 2014 2014 2014 2014 Mind made up 93 91 89 82 Might change 7 9 10 18 DK/NA - - - - 2. Is your opinion of Jack Hatch favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.................................... Already Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted Favorable 32% 8% 66% 26% 29% 35% 46% Unfavorable 29 50 7 26 36 22 23 Hvn't hrd enough 36 40 24 43 32 39 29 REFUSED 3 2 3 6 3 4 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Jack Hatch favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 29 Oct 23 Oct 15 Sep 18 2014 2014 2014 2014 Favorable 32 31 33 29 Unfavorable 29 31 28 26 Hvn't hrd enough 36 35 36 44 REFUSED 3 3 3 1 3. Is your opinion of Terry Branstad favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.................................... Already Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted Favorable 56% 93% 17% 56% 63% 50% 49% Unfavorable 34 3 73 30 29 38 45 Hvn't hrd enough 6 2 6 8 5 7 4 REFUSED 4 2 4 6 3 5 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Terry Branstad favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 29 Oct 23 Oct 15 Sep 18 2014 2014 2014 2014 Favorable 56 56 56 59 Unfavorable 34 35 34 33 Hvn't hrd enough 6 5 7 7 REFUSED 4 4 3 1 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Joni Ernst the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Braley or Ernst? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS.................................... Already Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted Braley 45% 4% 94% 41% 39% 50% 57% Ernst 49 90 4 50 56 42 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 5 3 2 7 3 6 4 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bruce Braley the Democrat and Joni Ernst the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Braley or Ernst? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 29 Oct 23 Oct 15 Sep 17 2014 2014 2014 2014 Braley 45 46 45 44 Ernst 49 48 47 50 SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 1 DK/NA 5 4 5 4 4a. (If candidate chosen q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q4 Tot Braley Ernst Mind made up 91% 90% 91% Might change 9 10 9 DK/NA - - - TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................. CANDIDATE CHOSEN.............. Oct 29 Oct 23 Oct 15 Sep 17 2014 2014 2014 2014 Mind made up 91 93 89 84 Might change 9 7 10 15 DK/NA - - - 1 5. Is your opinion of Bruce Braley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.................................... Already Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted Favorable 40% 6% 84% 37% 35% 45% 54% Unfavorable 43 73 8 44 49 38 36 Hvn't hrd enough 14 19 7 15 14 14 8 REFUSED 2 2 1 4 2 3 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Bruce Braley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 29 Oct 23 Oct 15 Sep 17 2014 2014 2014 2014 Favorable 40 43 42 38 Unfavorable 43 43 44 41 Hvn't hrd enough 14 11 13 20 REFUSED 2 3 1 1 6. Is your opinion of Joni Ernst favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS.................................... Already Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voted Favorable 45% 82% 6% 44% 51% 39% 36% Unfavorable 43 9 86 39 37 48 56 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 7 14 11 9 7 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 1 4 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Joni Ernst favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS................. Oct 29 Oct 23 Oct 15 Sep 17 2014 2014 2014 2014 Favorable 45 48 47 45 Unfavorable 43 42 41 39 Hvn't hrd enough 10 7 11 15 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 Demographic Summary
