Kirsten Powers: No such thing as an easy win for GOP

While political prognosticators forecast a GOP takeover of the Senate in the midterm elections, Democrats are still in the fight even though Republicans should have coasted to victory.

A year ago, few would have expected the GOP would be on the ropes in Kansas, Kentucky and Georgia. Kansas Republicans haven't lost a Senate race since 1932. Now, Sen. Pat Roberts is nearly tied with businessman Greg Orman, an independent. GOP minority leader Sen. Mitch McConnell, who hails from a deep red state, has been in a fierce battle with Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes.

Republicans should be alarmed they've had to marshal so many resources to win in an environment that so overwhelmingly favors them. The number of baked-in advantages for the GOP this election cycle is remarkable.

There's the landscape: Democrats are defending 21 seats; the GOP 15. Only one of those GOP states, Maine, went for President Obama in 2012. But the Dems are struggling to hold on to seats in seven states: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota and West Virginia, that Obama lost.

Then there's the wildly unpopular Democratic president, an albatross around the neck of red-state Dems. Obama's approval ratings have been in a free fall for months as he fumbled through a series of high profile crises including Ebola and ISIL.

Really, how much easier could this be for the GOP? While bombarding voters with the message of a world out of control, which they've pinned on Democrats, recent data show that GOP campaigns, committees and outside groups have "outspent Democrats on the air in every top Senate battleground since the end of the primaries."

While South Dakota, Montana and West Virginia seem to be lost causes for Democrats, the most recent NBC/Marist poll shows Senate races in Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Arkansas and North Carolina within three points. In Georgia, recent polls favor Democrat Michelle Nunn, who is fighting Rep. David Perdue. Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu leads her Republican opponent by a point, but is likely headed for a runoff. A Friday poll showed the Alaska Senate race in a tie.

For all the talk of how damaged Democrats are, the GOP brand is actually more dinged up. Pew Research Center reports that 55% of registered voters have an unfavorable impression of the GOP, and only 39% view the party favorably. For Dems, it's 48% say unfavorable and 47% favorable.

Things will only get harder for the GOP in 2016 when they will be defending 24 seats to the Dems' 10. Five of the GOP states went for Obama twice, and two more gave him their votes once.

If Republicans pull off a takeover of the Senate next week, their excitement should be tempered by reality. If they had to fight so hard on their home turf in a year of cascading crises, their future doesn't look so bright.

Kirsten Powers writes weekly for USA TODAY.

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