Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Walker (R) | Burke (D) | Spread |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP Average | 10/16 - 10/26 | -- | -- | 47.8 | 45.8 | Walker +2.0 |
Marquette University | 10/23 - 10/26 | 1164 LV | 3.0 | 50 | 43 | Walker +7 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 10/16 - 10/23 | 3308 LV | 3.0 | 46 | 45 | Walker +1 |
Rasmussen Reports | 10/20 - 10/21 | 973 LV | 3.0 | 48 | 49 | Burke +1 |
WPR/St. Norbert | 10/18 - 10/21 | 525 LV | 4.4 | 47 | 46 | Walker +1 |
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10/28/14 -- Burke and Walker are knotted up at 47 percent. This could take days to sort out.
10/19/14 -- Walker has generally led in the polls, but Burke has hung tough. This race is anybody's ballgame as we enter the closing weeks.
----------Race Preview----------
Wisconsin has a long history of electing progressive politicians, first from the Republican Party, later from the Democratic Party. Robert La Follette and his sons were the typical mold for a Wisconsin governor for most of the 20th century. But during the Great Depression progressives swung toward the Democrats nationally; the state Republican Party became more conservative, and the state Democratic Party began to grow.
During the mid-20th century, Wisconsin favored liberal Democrats for its governors, including the famed Gaylord Nelson and Patrick Lucey. But in the late 1900s, it became a laboratory for conservative politics under Tommy Thompson. The pendulum swung back in 2002, when the state elected Jim Doyle governor.
Doyle was never extremely popular, and in 2010 he opted not to run for re-election. Voters elected Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, a Republican, to succeed Doyle. Walker proceeded to pursue a solidly conservative agenda, resulting in a series of attempts to weaken his governorship. First, progressives attempted to defeat a conservative Supreme Court justice. Then, they attempted to recall enough state senators to capture that body. Finally, they attempted to recall Walker himself. However, these efforts failed.
Given this, we’d expect to see Walker in relatively solid shape. But this doesn’t seem to be the case. He maintains a narrow lead over Madison School Board member Mary Burke.
Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Walker (R) | Burke (D) | Spread |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP Average | 10/16 - 10/26 | -- | -- | 47.8 | 45.8 | Walker +2.0 |
Marquette University | 10/23 - 10/26 | 1164 LV | 3.0 | 50 | 43 | Walker +7 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 10/16 - 10/23 | 3308 LV | 3.0 | 46 | 45 | Walker +1 |
Rasmussen Reports | 10/20 - 10/21 | 973 LV | 3.0 | 48 | 49 | Burke +1 |
WPR/St. Norbert | 10/18 - 10/21 | 525 LV | 4.4 | 47 | 46 | Walker +1 |
Marquette University | 10/9 - 10/12 | 803 LV | 3.5 | 47 | 47 | Tie |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 9/20 - 10/1 | 1444 LV | 3.0 | 48 | 49 | Burke +1 |
Marquette University | 9/25 - 9/28 | 585 LV | 4.1 | 50 | 45 | Walker +5 |
Marquette University | 9/11 - 9/14 | 589 LV | 4.1 | 49 | 46 | Walker +3 |
Rasmussen Reports | 9/15 - 9/16 | 750 LV | 4.0 | 48 | 46 | Walker +2 |
WeAskAmerica* | 9/3 - 9/3 | 1170 LV | 3.0 | 44 | 48 | Burke +4 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 8/18 - 9/2 | 1473 LV | 4.0 | 49 | 45 | Walker +4 |
Marquette University | 8/21 - 8/24 | 609 LV | 4.1 | 47 | 49 | Burke +2 |
Rasmussen Reports | 8/13 - 8/14 | 750 LV | 4.0 | 48 | 47 | Walker +1 |
Marquette University | 7/17 - 7/20 | 549 LV | 4.3 | 46 | 47 | Burke +1 |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 7/5 - 7/24 | 1968 RV | -- | 47 | 46 | Walker +1 |
Marquette University | 5/15 - 5/18 | 586 LV | 3.5 | 48 | 45 | Walker +3 |
Magellan Strategies (R) | 4/14 - 4/15 | 851 LV | 3.4 | 47 | 47 | Tie |
PPP (D) | 4/17 - 4/20 | 1144 RV | 2.9 | 48 | 45 | Walker +3 |
WPR/St. Norbert | 3/24 - 4/3 | LV | -- | 56 | 40 | Walker +16 |
Marquette University | 3/20 - 3/23 | 801 RV | 3.5 | 48 | 41 | Walker +7 |
Rasmussen Reports | 3/10 - 3/11 | 500 LV | 4.5 | 45 | 45 | Tie |
Marquette University | 1/20 - 1/23 | 802 RV | 3.5 | 47 | 41 | Walker +6 |
Marquette University | 10/21 - 10/24 | 800 RV | 3.5 | 47 | 45 | Walker +2 |
PPP (D) | 9/13 - 9/16 | 1180 RV | 2.9 | 48 | 42 | Walker +6 |