Race Analysis

10/28/14 -- Snyder seems to be opening up a lead over Schauer. He's not out of the woods yet, but he's in much better shape than he was two months ago.

10/19/14 -- Snyder's lead is small but steady, although it is mostly built upon a decline in Schauer's standing. It remains to be seen if he can improve his standing beyond 45 percent or so.

10/7/14 -- Snyder seems to be opening up a lead here. Will it last? It is hard to say, but this race is on the cusp of leaning Republican.

----------Race Preview----------

The story of recent Michigan politics can be summarized in three letters: U.A.W. In the wake of the sit-down strikes of the 1930s, what was once one of the most solidly Republican states in the Union (71 percent for Hoover in 1928) quickly became competitive. The state eventually settled into a split between “outstate” Michigan, which retained its Republican heritage, and Detroit, which was solidly Democratic. The suburbs provided a swing vote, but like most Northern suburbs, they moved toward the Democrats in the 1990s and took the state along with them.

Michigan suffered from a one-state recession in the 2000s. Gov. Jennifer Granholm was not particularly popular, but she managed a come-from-behind re-election win against Republican Dick DeVos in 2006. In 2010, Rick Snyder, who styled himself as “one tough nerd,” won a massive 18 percent victory in the state – the largest margin for a non-incumbent since Kim Sigler’s win in 1946.

But Sigler’s win includes a cautionary tale. He was carried into office by the Republican wave, and was carried out two years later, losing by a modest margin to Democrat G. Mennen “Soapy” Williams. Snyder likewise finds himself in a close race with former Rep. Mark Schauer. While the national mood seems like it will eventually buoy Snyder, governor’s races are quirky, and he could wind up losing this one.