Introduction

In preparing the AEO2014 Reference case, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluated a wide range of trends and issues that could have major implications for U.S. energy markets. This overview presents the AEO2014 Reference case and compares it with the AEO2013 Reference case released in April 2013 (see Table 1 on pages 17-18). Because of the uncertainties inherent in any energy market projection, the Reference case results should not be viewed in isolation. Readers are encouraged to review the alternative cases when the complete AEO2014 publication is released, to gain perspective on how variations in key assumptions can lead to different outlooks for energy markets.

To provide a basis against which alternative cases and policies can be compared, the AEO2014 Reference case generally assumes that current laws and regulations affecting the energy sector remain unchanged throughout the projection (including the implication that laws that include sunset dates do, in fact, expire at the time of those sunset dates). This assumption clarifies the relationship of the Reference case to other AEO2014 cases and enables policy analysis with less uncertainty regarding unstated legal or regulatory assumptions.

Key updates made for the AEO2014 Reference case include the following:

Macroeconomic

• Revised U.S. Census Bureau population projections. The population projection for 2040 in the AEO2014 Reference case is almost 6% below the 2040 projection used for the AEO2013 Reference case. Most of the revision in overall population growth results from a lower projection for net international migration, with younger age groups showing the largest differences from the earlier projection. The slower rate of population growth leads to less labor force growth, which contributes to slower GDP growth.

Residential, commercial, and industrial

• Revised base year residential equipment stocks and energy consumption for space heating, space cooling, and water heating, based on data from EIA's 2009 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), the most recent data available. Estimates of appliance stocks and energy consumption for several miscellaneous electric loads also were updated, based on a report by Navigant Consulting Inc., to better reflect recent changes and trends in the residential sector.

Read More ›