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Just a fortnight to go now until Americans cast their ballots in the crucial midterm elections. Or until around 39% of eligible voters cast their ballots, that is. Midterms are not known for heavy turnout. It’s more of an exclusive affair. Just the fancy people.
Here is the state of the race:
Gut check for Mitch: A poll released Monday evening by the estimable SurveyUSA shows would-be Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell with an eeny-weeny one-point lead in his race against Democratic trinomial Alison Lundergan Grimes. And look who’s in Kentucky today to help her:
Have you RSVP'ed for our rallies with President Clinton? → http://t.co/6f3c5ZqqXB http://t.co/SsQzxBC9j8 #KYSen pic.twitter.com/d6vHjZT9Wk
— Alison L. Grimes (@AlisonForKY) October 20, 2014
Can Grimes send Mitch packing?
Love @surveyusa... I tend to love the average more though. Grimes can still win... Think McConnell is far more likely.
— Harry Enten (@ForecasterEnten) October 20, 2014
Speaking of the big guns, first lady Michelle Obama is scheduled to pop up in a couple Senate races today, for Bruce Braley in Iowa and for Al Franken in Minnesota, where they’ll be joined by Governor Mark Dayton, who’s running for reelection.
- With Farms Fading and Urban Might Rising, Power Shifts in Iowa – New York Times
Friends like these: Democrats in states where the president’s name is mud have worked hard pretending not to know the guy. But it’s all for show, Obama helpfully explained on Monday, saying, “The bottom line is, though, these are all folks who vote with me; they have supported my agenda in Congress.”
Curveball: Trailing Texas gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis accuses opponent, who is in an interracial marriage, of tacitly supporting a ban on interracial marriage.
Monica Lewinsky: now on Twitter.
— Monica Lewinsky (@MonicaLewinsky) October 20, 2014
Whither the Senate
It’s still looking good for the GOP. The average probability of Republicans taking the Senate, according to three top elections modellers (538, the New York Times and HuffPost Pollster), is 65.1% – basically unchanged from a day before.
But some observers saw a potential shift to the Democrats in Colorado, where a new poll of 600 likely voters showed incumbent Senator Mark Udall with a little lead. Stumping for Udall today: no less than Hillary Clinton.
- Clinton: Midterm elections should motivate women – AP
- Colorado tests reach of Democrats’ ground game – AP
- Gardner outraises Udall as voting begins – AP
How the Democrats could pull this off: Greg Sargent explains. It ain’t pretty:
If Democrats can hold on in just one of the four following toss-up states in which they are currently trailing — Colorado, Iowa, Arkansas or Alaska — their hopes of holding the Senate remain alive. That is plausible. But a lot has to go their way after that.
If you love polls
Hagan lead pretty steady in NC Senate race – PPP poll
Kansas: US Senate toss-up – Monmouth University poll
Florida Governor: Scott (R) 47%, Crist (D) 47% – Rasmussen
New Hampshire: Shaheen ahead of Brown in NH by 3 points – Boston Herald
Arkansas: Cotton Up 8 Points On Pryor In Senate Race – TB&P-Hendrix Poll
Ad watch
The Worst Campaign Ad That Human Beings Actually Paid for This Year – Bloomberg Politics
The winner is “Gary Peters: Loan Sharknado,” paid for by the Michigan Republican Party (HuffPost Pollster’s aggregator has Peters 5 points ahead of his challenger). Behold:
Dave Weigel writes:
Where to start?
North Carolina’s 2nd District is considered safe ground for Republican incumbent Renee Ellmers, but challenger Clay Aiken – the American Idol standout – yields not an inch in his new campaign spot.
- Michelle Nunn ad again features George Bush Sr; again he’s not pleased – Atlanta Journal Constitution
Bonus: an ad featuring cave men from liberal rich man Tom Steyer’s NextGen Climate super PAC in Florida attacking Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Scott.
Kayla’s korner
Here’s my colleague Kayla Epstein (@kaylaepstein) with your [mercilessly abbreviated – ed] New York politics update:
The New York Times editorial board has finally endorsed Andrew Cuomo for re-election after abstaining from doing so during the Democratic primary because of disappointment in his failure to “clean up Albany”. The Times’ endorsement comes with a lengthy checklist of stalled liberal initiatives that they expect him to tackle.
Joe Biden gave the governor a more ringing endorsement on Monday, likening Cuomo to Abraham Lincoln at a joint appearance.
Meanwhile, Cuomo’s Republican rival Rob Astorino made some predictions before their Wednesday debate, saying, “I expect the Governor will throw out more nonsense.”
Debate alert
Florida governor’s debate, pitting incumbent Rick Scott and former governor Charlie Crist. This race is close. Catch it at 7pm ET on CNN.
Massachusetts governor’s debate, pitting state attorney general Martha Coakley and Republican Charlie Baker. This race is close. Catch it at 7pm ET on C-SPAN.
New Hampshire Senate debate, pitting incumbent Jeanne Shaheen and Republican challenger Scott Brown. Catch it at 8pm ET on C-SPAN.
South Carolina governor’s debate, pitting incumbent Nikki Haley and four other people. Catch it at 9pm ET on C-SPAN.
Kansas governor’s debate, pitting Republican incumbent Sam Brownback and challenger Paul Davis on the PBS web site at 8pm ET.
- Poll: Dem Challenger Back Ahead In Kansas Gubernatorial Race – Talking Points Memo
Obama approval rating
The president’s job approval rating in Gallup’s daily tracking is at 40%, holding steady from a day earlier. That’s low, but not as low as George W Bush’s worst quarterly average of 39.1%. On the bright side, for him.
Featured reads
Alabama House Speaker Mike Hubbard indicted – USA Today
Nebraska: Dem claims cash boost after controversial GOP ad – The Hill
Early Voting Offers No Proof That Democrats Have Improved Turnout Effort – New York Times
With Charlie Crist outraising him, Rick Scott says he ‘might’ self-fund after saying he wouldn’t – Miami Herald
Yellow Flags For Democrats In North Carolina – FiveThirtyEight
Senator Angus King knows that being a man without a party comes with perks – Washington Post
Joni Ernst Is the GOP’s Breakout Star. The Democratic Machine Could Still Beat Her. – National Journal
Valerie Jarrett returns to work after surgery – Politico
In Chicago, a warm homecoming for unpopular Obama – AP
Americans’ Gloom Marches Into Second Decade – Wall Street Journal
In Georgia and across the country, GOP modernizes its voter outreach – The Washington Post
Colorado Dems: We Caught James O’Keefe and His Friends Trying to Bait Us Into Approving Voter Fraud – Mother Jones
Is your daily consumption of political news harming your ability to love your country? Rediscover what’s great about America with this beautiful photograph brought to you by the Department of the Interior:
Fall hiking is worth it @MountRainierNPS in #Washington pic.twitter.com/u9Ww12KxAQ
— US Dept of Interior (@Interior) October 20, 2014
