The Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert explores political trends in a purple state and beyond.
A 2014 Wisconsin election with 2016 overtones
When Paul Ryan hits the trail for Scott Walker on Wednesday, it will put two potential presidential candidates from the same state on the same campaign bus, a rare piece of political theater and a reminder of the national overtones of the Nov. 4 election in Wisconsin.
“I’m just trying to help my friend get re-elected governor,” says Ryan, who will join the Walker bus tour in Prairie du Sac, West Salem and Eau Claire.
November is a huge month for these two GOP heavyweights, who both have elections to win before they entertain any big decisions about 2016. »Read Full Blog Post(197)
President Obama visits 99% Democratic ward to turn out Milwaukee base
When President Barack Obama arrives in Milwaukee on Tuesday, his task will be to help mobilize African-Americans and other key Democratic voting groups who still give him positive ratings despite his lackluster standing nationwide.
The president will be visiting North Division High School in an overwhelmingly African-American ward that he carried with 99% of the vote in 2012, outpolling Republican Mitt Romney 843 to 5.
Anything Obama can do to boost turnout in the city of Milwaukee and among-African Americans puts more votes in Democrat Mary Burke’s column in her neck-and-neck battle with GOP Gov. Scott Walker. »Read Full Blog Post(530)
$16 million in ads later, not much has changed in Walker-Burke race
Roughly $16 million has been spent in the Wisconsin governor’s race on broadcast TV ads, most of them attacking the other side’s candidate.
But if those ads are changing minds, it’s awfully hard to tell.
Wisconsin voters have remained almost perfectly divided over Gov. Scott Walker and Mary Burke for months, no matter what has happened in the race, no matter what has happened in the state, no matter what has happened in the world, no matter what the campaigns have said or done. »Read Full Blog Post(97)
Facebook fault lines among Walker and Burke supporters
Via Facebook, we now have one more measure of the contrasting worlds that Democrats and Republicans occupy in the not-so-united state of Wisconsin.
Facebook examined the differences in local businesses that are popular with Mary Burke and Scott Walker supporters active on the social networking site.
The patterns they found reflect the familiar geography of the two parties’ political bases in Wisconsin (Milwaukee and Madison for Democrats, the southeastern Wisconsin suburbs and exurbs for Republicans). »Read Full Blog Post(81)
Milwaukee turnout one of the major keys to Walker-Burke election
With Bill Clinton campaigning in Milwaukee Friday and President Obama appearing next Tuesday, Mary Burke is counting on both men to help spur turnout in the state’s biggest city.
Democrats don’t win close elections in Wisconsin without running up the score in Milwaukee.
But this city has produced substantially fewer votes for governor than it has for president in recent decades. »Read Full Blog Post(566)
Wisconsin's red-blue swings offer a map to victory for each party
Tiny Lafayette County in southwestern Wisconsin has been riding a political roller coaster in recent years.
It voted for Democrat Barack Obama for president by 22 points in 2008. Then it voted for Republican Scott Walker for governor by 6 points in 2010 and by 14 points in the 2012 recall. Then it voted for Democrat Obama by 15 points five months later.
Those dizzying swings may seem surprising in a state as polarized as this one. But Lafayette County is not alone. »Read Full Blog Post(107)
A state polarized over Gov. Walker has become even more so since 2012
The 2012 recall fight divided Wisconsin by party, ideology, race, income, gender, age, marital status and religious belief.
Two years later, those fault lines over Gov. Scott Walker not only persist — in many cases, they are actually deeper than ever.
Take the state’s partisan divide. As massive as it was in 2012, the gap between Democrats and Republicans is even bigger in 2014, according to a detailed analysis of polling over the past three years. »Read Full Blog Post(762)
Burke's challenge against Walker: closing the turnout gap
Midterm elections are as much about which people vote as they are about how people vote.
And Wisconsin’s race for governor is a perfect case in point.
In recent weeks, Gov. Scott Walker has carved out a narrow lead over challenger Mary Burke among the most likely voters, even though the race hasn’t changed — and remains deadlocked — among registered voters overall. »Read Full Blog Post(846)
Ad wars heat up in Walker-Burke race
As the ad wars escalate in a tight race for governor, the two sides are matching each other blow for blow on broadcast television, an analysis of TV spending in Wisconsin shows.
Democrats and Republicans combined to spend roughly $5 million on local stations in Wisconsin’s five main media markets in September.
Democrats spent just over $2.5 million. »Read Full Blog Post(134)
This time around Scott Walker less dominant in rural Wisconsin
Gov. Scott Walker owed much of his victory in the 2012 recall fight to the big margins he piled up in the small cities, towns and countryside of northern and western Wisconsin.
But replicating that striking performance two years later is proving difficult.
One big reason this race for governor is closer than the last one is that Walker has lost ground in the Green Bay, Wausau and La Crosse media markets, according to an analysis of 2014 polling data. »Read Full Blog Post(384)
In a big change from 2012, Democrats outspent Walker on broadcast TV this summer
Since June, Democrats have narrowly outspent Republican Gov. Scott Walker on broadcast television in Wisconsin, according to a Journal Sentinel analysis of advertising buys around the state.
That’s a surprising state of affairs — and it seems unlikely to endure this fall.
But the competitiveness of the ad wars in recent months is a big change from the 2012 recall campaign, when Walker thoroughly dominated the airwaves, outspending his opponents on TV by roughly 2 to 1. »Read Full Blog Post(216)
President Obama returns to Wisconsin with declining job ratings
President Obama comes to Milwaukee Monday with his worst ratings in Wisconsin in more than two years.
Is a weakened Obama a political liability for the Democratic candidate for governor, Mary Burke, who won’t be appearing on stage with him during his visit?
The President is an undisputed drag on some Democrats this fall, especially in red states such as Arkansas and Louisiana with vulnerable Democratic senators on the ballot. »Read Full Blog Post(306)
Unified, motivated Democratic base helping keep Walker-Burke race deadlocked
Democrats had at least two big fears going into the 2014 race for governor against incumbent Scott Walker.
One was that their little-known candidate, Mary Burke, would be negatively defined – and badly scarred -- by an early barrage of GOP advertising.
The other was that Republican voters would be more motivated to vote than Democrats, tilting the electorate toward Walker. »Read Full Blog Post(191)
Grothman could change political equation in 6th District
If his tiny victory margin in Tuesday’s GOP primary holds up, state Sen. Glenn Grothman will be the instant favorite this fall to replace 35-year congressman Tom Petri of Fond du Lac.
But he’ll be a favorite with an asterisk.
Grothman’s blunt persona and outspoken conservatism on hot-button social issues are wild cards in what otherwise should be an easy seat for Republicans to hold. »Read Full Blog Post(119)
Wisconsin's closest congressional race in decades
A third of a percentage point is all that separates Glenn Grothman and Joe Leibham in their GOP congressional primary after the unofficial vote count Wednesday morning in Wisconsin’s Sixth District.
Grothman leads Leibham by 215 votes in the Associated Press tally, though the margin is slightly smaller – 213 -- based on a Journal Sentinel review of the returns posted online by each of the 11 counties in the district.
A recount, which can be requested by the losing candidate, would seem likely. »Read Full Blog Post(8)
Voters upbeat about state's direction, still divided over Scott Walker
The best news for Scott Walker in this year’s polling is that a majority of voters have a positive view of where the state is headed.
In a Marquette Law School survey last month, 54% said Wisconsin is “generally going in the right direction.”
Only 41% said things “have gotten off on the wrong track.” »Read Full Blog Post(576)
Scott Walker facing new test in deadlocked race with Mary Burke
Republican Scott Walker’s last two races for governor were competitive and hard fought but not really all that suspenseful, ending in a 6-point victory in 2010 and a 7-point victory in 2012.
This one is shaping up differently, polls suggest.
Gov. Walker and Democratic challenger Mary Burke are effectively tied, according to the last two statewide surveys by Marquette Law School. »Read Full Blog Post(549)
The people's House: more unpopular -- and politically safer -- than ever
Congress may face voters this fall with its lowest recorded approval ratings ever in a mid-term election.
Only 15 percent of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, according to Gallup. You might expect such dismal numbers to put politicians in peril.
But for the 435-member House of Representatives, the election outlook is the opposite. »Read Full Blog Post(66)
Wisconsin a case study in fast-changing politics of same-sex marriage
Support for a same-sex marriage ban was so broad in Wisconsin eight years ago that only one county out of 72 (Dane) voted against it.
But today, polls suggest, there are few places in the state where it remains all that popular.
By the time a federal judge struck down the ban June 6, it had already lost much of its political support. »Read Full Blog Post(107)
For Scott Walker, jobs count may be bigger headache than John Doe
Gov. Walker's rockiest week since the recall culminated with the release Thursday of documents containing allegations by prosecutors that he was part of “a criminal scheme” to bypass state election laws.
But the story that in the long run may represent a more fundamental political challenge for the governor was the batch of new jobs figures also out Thursday painting an unflattering picture of Walker’s first three years in office.
Wisconsin ranked 35 of 50 states in private-sector job growth between 2010 and 2013, trailing all its closest Midwest neighbors — even Illinois, the state the governor has repeatedly bashed for having a hostile business climate. »Read Full Blog Post(908)
Connect with us