President Obama visits 99% Democratic ward to turn out Milwaukee base

When President Barack Obama arrives in Milwaukee on Tuesday, his task will be to help mobilize African-Americans and other key Democratic voting groups who still give him positive ratings despite his lackluster standing nationwide.

The president will be visiting North Division High School in an overwhelmingly African-American ward that he carried with 99% of the vote in 2012, outpolling Republican Mitt Romney 843 to 5. 

Anything Obama can do to boost turnout in the city of Milwaukee and among-African Americans puts more votes in Democrat Mary Burke’s column in her neck-and-neck battle with GOP Gov. Scott Walker.

A closer look at Obama’s polling numbers in Wisconsin shows:

An eight-point decline in approval from his election-year peak. The president has lost significant support since the 2012 campaign, based on Marquette Law School’s frequent polling in the state. His approval rating in Wisconsin peaked in September of 2012 at 54% of registered voters, fell to the high 40s post-election, hit a low of 43% in two polls last month, and bounced back slightly to 46% in Marquette’s last poll Oct. 9-12.

He’s doing better in Wisconsin than many states. That last number – 46% approval – is a little higher than the president’s national ratings, which average around 42% approval.  And Obama’s personal standing is better than his job rating in Wisconsin. In Marquette’s last poll, 50% of registered voters viewed him favorably, 47% unfavorably.

In other words, while Obama’s standing has declined in Wisconsin, voters remain pretty evenly divided in their attitudes toward him. And Obama hasn’t come close to matching the decline in President Bush’s second-term Wisconsin job ratings, which sank into the high 30s during the 2006 mid-term and lower still in his final two years.

He’s still doing well with the base. In most cases, the president is still very popular in Wisconsin with the kinds of voters Democrats are focused on turning out Nov. 4, based on survey data provided by Marquette Law School pollster Charles Franklin. Franklin combined his four statewide polls since August (totaling 3420 registered voters) for this analysis. 

The president’s Wisconsin approval rating over this time is 84% among African-Americans, 60% among union members and 55% among public-employee households. 

Obama enjoys 64% approval in the city of Milwaukee and 58% approval in the Madison media market, the two geographic bases of the Democratic Party in Wisconsin.  And not surprisingly, the president has sky-high approval ratings among Democrats (87%) and liberals (81%) – along with rock-bottom approval among Republicans (7%) and the most conservative voters (12%).

Support softer with younger voters. Obama’s numbers are not as impressive among another group that has voted Democratic in recent years – voters under 30.  The president carried voters under 30 in Wisconsin with 64% in 2008 and 60% in 2012, according to exit polls.  But in Marquette’s last four polls, Obama’s average job rating among these younger voters is 48% approval and 42% disapproval.

Obama and Walker.  History tells us that as a Republican governor, Scott Walker benefits politically from a Democratic president’s political troubles. Obama’s struggles with independent voters in Wisconsin (40% approval, 51% disapproval) aren’t helpful to Democrat Mary Burke.

But it’s unclear from the polling how much of a factor Obama is in the governor’s race.  

For one thing, attitudes in Wisconsin appear to be more dug in over the governor than the president – a highly unusual circumstance for any state. Walker’s approval has never been higher than 51% or lower than 47% in 15 Marquette polls dating back to the fall of 2012. Obama’s approval has been more volatile, ranging between 53% and 43%.

And there’s this twist: The decline in Obama’s ratings has coincided with a small decline – rather than an uptick – in Walker’s own job ratings.

Both men averaged 50% approval in Wisconsin in 2012. In 2014, Walker’s average approval rating is two points lower (48%) and Obama’s is five points lower (45%).  

Walker was doing better when Obama was doing better, which could be coincidence or could indicate that 2014 is just a worse climate for incumbents in general.

Two years ago, there was an intriguing subset of voters in Wisconsin who supported both Walker and Obama. In the exit poll after the June 2012 recall, 9 percent of voters said they voted for Walker but were supporting Obama for re-election.

There are fewer such voters today. In Marquette’s polling, the share of voters who approve of both Walker and Obama has dropped from a peak of 12% to about 6% this fall. There’s even less crossing of partisan lines in this electorate than there was in 2012.

As the president's limited campaign schedule makes plain, there aren't a lot of big competitive races this fall where Democrats feel Obama's presence is helpful. But his Milwaukee visit makes perfect sense. His negative impact on any remaining undecided voters in Walker vs. Burke is probably pretty marginal. Yet if he can help turn out African-Americans and other base voters in the state’s biggest city, Obama can be more help than hindrance to his party in the final days of a very competitive governor’s race. 

Follow Craig Gilbert on Twitter @WisVoter