Edition: U.S. / Global

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

2014 Midterm Elections

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Election 2014

The Race for the Midterms in the House and Senate

Essay

The Bumpkinification of the Midterm Elections

From Andrew Jackson to Joni Ernst, American politicians have a long history of appealing to voters as self-styled feisty populists. The midterms are no different. (They’re worse!)

The Upshot

Outside Spending Shows How Few of the House Races Are Competitive

Twenty-five contests account for 80 percent of all reported outside spending for House elections.

The Upshot

The Big Role of Black Churches in Two Senate Races

In Georgia and North Carolina this past Sunday, blacks cast 53 percent of the votes.

California’s Proposition 45 Would Offer Public a Say on Health Insurance Rate Increases

The ballot measure would allow consumers to sue to keep costs down on individual and small group plans, even after a commissioner had approved them.

The Upshot

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Campaign Ads

Political ads on TV, though much loathed, actually do the job of improving awareness of who is running for or holding office.

The Upshot

Mark Udall Faces a Turnout Challenge in Colorado

Although the example of Michael Bennet’s unlikely election in 2010 looms large in this race, the two situations are quite different.

The Upshot

Latest Alaska Polls Show Surprising Shift Toward Mark Begich

The chances for the incumbent senator to hang on to his seat suddenly look brighter.

The Upshot

Professors’ Research Project Stirs Political Outrage in Montana

Sending mailers to voters was intended to test how information about the ideology of candidates affected officially nonpartisan races.

The Upshot

Senate Model Update: What if Georgia Goes to a Runoff?

A runoff election there is looking like a very real prospect, and a runoff is nothing like a regular election.

The Upshot

The Reason the Georgia Race Has Become a Dead Heat

Michelle Nunn has caught up to David Perdue in polling, and her gains can be attributed to changes in the racial composition of likely voters.

In New Hampshire, House Incumbents Try to Prevent Another Flip of Seats

Carol Shea-Porter and Ann McLane Kuster are locked in tight re-election battles with opponents who are eager to tie them to President Obama, who has a 40 percent approval rating here.

Trying to Raise Profile of Climate Change for Washington Voters

The effort, by Thomas F. Steyer, has turned the battle over the State Senate into one of the most expensive legislative elections in state history.

The Upshot

The Methodology of the Midterm Battleground Tracker

The YouGov online surveys are being used to supplement, not replace, the Times’s traditional telephone polls.

The Upshot

A Republican Edge, With More Stability

A new YouGov survey shows that Republicans lead narrowly in the battle for the Senate, and that most voters have made up their minds.

The Upshot

Republicans Are Surging in the Prediction Markets

Betting markets are diverging from polling-based forecast models, which are more optimistic about Democratic chances to retain the Senate.

The Upshot

For Nervous House Incumbents, October Means a Money Chase

A heavy volume of last-minute campaign contributions is a sign of a close race.

Toxic Partisanship? Bill Clinton Says He Had It Worse, Yet Got Things Done

The former president argues that the personal attacks were even harsher when he was in the White House, raising the question of whether a bitter atmosphere should be an excuse for political gridlock.

The Upshot

Michelle Nunn Is Within Reach of an Outright Georgia Victory

Polls show that the Democratic Senate candidate may be able to clear the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff in January.

Race Tests Democrats’ Viability in West Virginia

Representative Nick J. Rahall II has defiantly held on to his seat in a district that faults White House policy for the area’s declining coal industry.

In Ad Spending, Greg Abbott Opens Big Margin

Greg Abbott, the Republican who is running for governor of Texas, is riding a wave of television ads all the way to the election.

The Upshot

Arkansas, a Demographic Challenge for Democrats

Changes in the state’s population have helped create a political climate far more favorable to Republicans.

The Upshot

How to Win the Senate: The States Each Party Needs

The Democratic path to 50 Senate seats is narrow, but still very possible. Here's how.

Economists See Limited Gains in G.O.P. Plan

Anticipating a takeover of Congress, Republicans have assembled an economic agenda that reflects their small-government philosophy, but leaves many economists underwhelmed.

The Upshot

Kansas Faces Additional Revenue Shortfalls After Tax Cuts

Three more months of data are in, and the state is still collecting much less income tax than it expected.

The Upshot

G.O.P. Wins on Expected Battlefield, but Terrain Has Changed

The Democrats have struggled to defend their Senate ground but are still in the game because they’ve brought Kansas and Georgia into play.

Senate General Election End date Dem. Rep. Margin Adjusted margin
+Kan. Rasmussen Reports 8/7 40% 44% Roberts* +4 +3
+Kan. YouGov 7/24 37% 54% Roberts* +17 +16
+Kan. SurveyUSA 7/22 33% 38% Roberts* +5 +5
*IncumbentNote: Adjusted margins include adjustments for pollster house effects.
State Forecast Margin
80% prediction interval shown.
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