Mavericks preview: Can up-and-comers, veterans blend to make a title mix?

G.J. McCarthy/Staff Photographer
(From left) Dallas Mavericks players Chandler Parsons, Tyson Chandler and Dirk Nowitzki photographed during the team's Media Day Monday, September 29, 2014 in Dallas. (G.J. McCarthy/The Dallas Morning News)
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Every season, NBA teams build a business plan for what they want to accomplish.

Some teams simply hope to get out of the lottery. Others try to build their young talent and get relevant in the playoff conversations. Others are middle-of-the-pack and trying to figure out how to move up. Elite teams have to figure out a way to stay elite.

The Mavericks are a little different.

They have lots of veterans who have had success, yet they’re infused with younger talent.

That’s like slapping a coat of youthful enthusiasm on an older, weathered team.

“Our mission is to build this back up and get ourselves in a position so we can advance in the playoffs and become one of those small handful of teams that has a real chance,” coach Rick Carlisle said. “We’re in the early stages. We like our team and so far, the chemistry feels good. But it’s a long trek.”

No one knows that better than Carlisle. He knows there will be challenges and drama and times of doubt in an 82-game grind.

But he also understands that these Mavericks are better equipped to handle those problem times than any of his teams since the one that won the title in 2011. Just listening him run down his top six players provides a good glimpse of how he feels about this team.

On Dirk Nowitzki: “One of the all-time greats.”

On Tyson Chandler: “A top-five center in this league. We love him.”

On Jameer Nelson: “A new guy who is going to help us a lot and give us good leadership and probably start for us.”

On Monta Ellis: “An all-star-caliber player who had a great year for us last year.”

On Chandler Parsons: “A great signing for us — a young guy who can do a lot of different things.”

And on Devin Harris: “Has been real solid for us, and this year he’s coming into the season healthy, which should be a great advantage for him.”

On this page, we’ll examine a few interesting things that need to go right for the Mavericks this season if they want to gain entry into the championship conversation.

Subtraction by addition

Raise your hand if you know who the Mavericks’ leading scorer is going to be this season.

Not seeing many people out there volunteering an opinion.

Don’t worry, you’re among the majority. With the addition of Chandler Parsons and Jameer Nelson, it’s uncertain exactly where the roughly 30 points per game those two could generate are going to come from.

Some of them walked out the door this summer in the form of Vince Carter and Shawn Marion. But others, like Tyson Chandler and Richard Jefferson, entered.

So what might the Mavericks’ explosive offensive production look like?

The smart money — at least Mark Cuban’s money, which generally has a sky-high IQ — is that Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis are going to see small downturns in their scoring, simply because there will be more skilled offensive players to spread the wealth to.

“Offensively we’re so explosive with Parsons being another guy who can make decisions and plays on the break, and pass,” Nowitzki said. “With Tyson finishing above the rim, I think we added a lot on offense and we’re going to be OK on that end.”

Here’s a look at how the Mavericks’ offense might look by the end of the season for the projected top seven players.

Player

Projected average

Eddie Sefko comment

Chandler Parsons

18.2

He’s not an offensive one-hit wonder, he’s the whole mix tape.

Dirk Nowitzki

18.0

He’ll defer just enough to let Parsons emerge as a team leader.

Monta Ellis

16.5

He’ll still lead them in many games but won’t have to do so as often.

Jameer Nelson

11.7

Mavs will be happier with a bloated assist total.

Tyson Chandler

9.6

If his rebounding is more than his scoring, it’ll be a major plus.

Brandan Wright

9.4

Efficient scorer will make the most of his opportunities.

Devin Harris

8.8

He’s capable of much more, but he’ll be a great facilitator.

 

3-ball, corner pocket

Doesn’t matter if you love it or think the 3-point shot has taken away from the NBA game. It’s here to stay, and no team will try to use the long ball to its advantage more than the Mavericks.

Whether it’s the closer, corner 3-pointer or Dirk Nowitzki’s favorite, the straight-on triple that he rarely seems to miss, the Mavericks dig the home run ball.

“Every team wants to shoot 3s, and in this era of the NBA, it’s a just a fact of life that you have to be able to shoot them,” coach Rick Carlisle said.

It helps when you have Nowitzki, who shot [and made] more 3-pointers than he had in more than a decade. He’s quite simply the best-shooting big man in NBA history.

Here’s a look at Nowitzki’s production through the years from beyond the arc.

Season

Made-Att.

Pct.

1998-99

14-68

.206

1999-2000

116-306

.379

2000-01

151-390

.387

2001-02

139-350

.397

2002-03

148-390

.379

2003-04

99-290

.341

2004-05

91-228

.399

2005-06

110-271

.406

2006-07

72-173

.416

2007-08

79-220

359

2008-09

61-170

.359

2009-10

51-121

.421

2010-11

66-168

.393

2011-12

78-212

.368

2012-13

65-157

.414

2013-14

131-329

.398

Total

1,471-3,843

.383

 

Note: Nowitzki is 23rd on the all-time NBA list of 3-pointers made and 25th in attempts.

Coming to pass

When they won the title in 2011 — and let’s face it, all Mavericks teams are measured against that one — they were one of the best-passing teams in the league.

That team had Jason Kidd averaging more than eight assists per game, but it also had Jason Terry and J.J. Barea, who combined to average eight assists per game. As a team, the Mavericks were second in the league with 23.8 assists per game.

That sort of chemistry and sharing of the ball led to Dirk Nowitzki’s shooting 51.7 percent, easily the best accuracy mark of his career.

In the season after the title, the Mavericks fell to 15th in assists. They were fifth and sixth the last two seasons.

“We want to be a ball-movement team,” Carlisle said.

In Jameer Nelson, Chandler Parsons, Monta Ellis, Raymond Felton and Devin Harris, the Mavericks have five players who averaged four or more assists last season. There should be no excuses this season for not having excellent ball movement.

A look at the five Mavericks who averaged four or more assists last season:

Player, Team

Asts.

Pts.

Jameer Nelson, Orl.

7.0

12.1

Monta Ellis, Dal.

5.7

19.0

Raymond Felton, NY

5.6

9.7

Devin Harris, Dal.

4.5

7.9

Chandler Parsons, Hou.

4.0

16.6

 

Ruling Texas?

It’s no coincidence that the NBA placed all three Texas teams on national television on opening night of the season. The Mavericks will visit San Antonio on Tuesday on ring night for the Spurs. Houston is in the late game on TNT at the Los Angeles Lakers.

This is a sign of how the league views the Texas Triangle, which figures to be as tough as ever this season.

The challenge for the Mavericks? Have a winning record in the eight games they will play against the Spurs and Rockets. If they do that, they’ll be a notch ahead of their two chief rivals in the Southwest Division. It doesn’t help that all four of their games against Houston are on the second night of back-to-backs. But there’s no whining in the NBA.

By the way, last season, the Mavericks were 2-6 against the Spurs (0-4) and Rockets (2-2).

Out to reverse a trend

In 2009-10, the Mavericks won the Southwest Division.

The following season, when they won the title, they finished second. They were third in 2011-12 and fourth the last two seasons.

That qualifies as a disturbing trend and has to be reversed.

If you can’t finish in the top half of your own division, you aren’t fooling anybody about what you can accomplish once the playoffs begin.

Stoppage time

We always hear about it, but nobody ever really wants to pay close attention to defense except coaches.

And a few players.

Tyson Chandler, Jae Crowder and Devin Harris are three of those players. They are the Mavericks’ best defenders. That tripod can combine to guard anybody on the court.

Remember, there are certain players in the NBA that nobody stops. But when the Mavericks won the championship in 2011, they limited LeBron James to 17.8 points per game in the 4-2 series win in the finals.

So defense can slow down even the best players.

And it’s going to be vital for the Mavericks to get better defensively this season because they haven’t been able to stop people lately without fouling. Here’s a look at their NBA rank in key defensive categories (field goal percentage, free throws attempted and points per game) and how the Mavericks have declined since the championship season:

Season

Opp. FG% (rk.)

Opp. FTA (rk.)

PPG (rk.)

2013-14

.464 (22nd)

24.6 (19th)

102.4 (20th)

2012-13

.445 (12th)

.25.4 (29th)

101.7 (27th)

2011-12

.435 (7th)

22.1 (11th)

94.8 (12th)

2010-11

.450 (8th)

22.3 (5th)

96.0 (10th)

 

Schools of thought

The Mavericks are a bit of an oddity in that they have three players in their eight-man rotation — Chandler Parsons, Jameer Nelson and Jae Crowder —who went to college for four years before entering the NBA.

Parsons believes there is a bit of a stigma against players who stay in college for their full eligibility, something that baffles him.

“I think being a four-year player really hurts you,” he says. “I don’t understand that, either. Me, personally, I’d rather have a 21-year-old proven man who has competed for four years and learned how to win big games and is more mature and can help your NBA team right then and there than a shot in the dark with a guy who’s one-and-done and only has potential.

“I’m all for leaving early if you’re ready. But you’re not in your max, your prime, until you’re 28, 29 years old. So when you stay four years and you’re 21, you’re still nowhere close to maxed out.”

At the other end of the spectrum are Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler and Monta Ellis, all of whom skipped college altogether.

Devin Harris and Brandan Wright, expected to fill out the primary eight-man rotation, left school early.

On Twitter:  @ESefko

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