The defending champion San Antonio Spurs and the rapidly rebuilt Cleveland Cavaliers are two obvious contenders for the N.B.A. championship. But to act as if those teams alone have a title chance is to ignore the bevy of entertaining teams out there that are just a step or two below the powerhouses.
The Spurs have the league’s most accomplished and, perhaps, best roster, while the Cavaliers acquired two of basketball’s biggest stars to go with their All-Star point guard. But on any given night, those teams can be challenged for excitement and production by the Golden State Warriors and their sweet-shooting backcourt, the Washington Wizards and their youthful depth, and others. The Chicago Bulls are among the league’s best-coached teams. The Memphis Grizzlies have a lunchbox-carrying ethos that has endeared them to their fans.
And the Los Angeles Clippers, in the first season after a messy breakup with their owner, have the support of one of the world’s richest men to go with a star-studded roster that lacks for nothing.
Playoff Predictions
In the 82-game grind of the regular season, which begins Tuesday, fans should be respectful of San Antonio and Cleveland, but neither of those teams should become too comfortable.
Western Conference
Northwest
As other teams deal with injuries and roster turnover, the Trail Blazers are remarkably intact. A season after they improved by 21 wins, it is reasonable to expect some regression. But LaMarcus Aldridge proved to be among the game’s dominant players in the postseason, and Damian Lillard has coolly shot his way into the Portland record books. If there is improvement to be made, it may come from Nicolas Batum, who can do virtually anything on the court but has yet to show consistency.
The Thunder are in the rare position of not being favored to win their division but being a challenger for the N.B.A. title. It comes down to how quickly and effectively Kevin Durant returns from a fracture in his right foot. Before Durant’s return, the team should look for ways to keep Kendrick Perkins off the court while limiting Russell Westbrook’s minutes enough so that his legs are fresh for the playoffs.
The Nuggets will be buoyed by the return of Arron Afflalo, but the key to the team’s success will be whether Kenneth Faried can continue the breakout he started with the United States men’s team in the Pan American Games. Denver showed its belief in him with a $50 million contract.
The Jazz warded off teams trying to pry away Gordon Hayward, but it is curious why a team with almost no shot at the playoffs was eager to give $63 million to a player suited for a complementary role. The Timberwolves have a lot of young talent, but watching the offensively raw Andrew Wiggins play in a backcourt with Ricky Rubio, a horrendous shooter, could be painful.
Pacific
It often seemed as if Donald Sterling’s penny-pinching ways were standing in the way of any significant improvement for the Clippers. Under Steve Ballmer’s ownership, that should not be an issue. The core of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan will be complemented by an array of outside shooters, including the returning J. J. Redick and Jamal Crawford, as well as the newcomers Jordan Farmar and Spencer Hawes. With Paul’s point-guard position taking a toll on his body and with the improved Jordan entering the final season of his contract, the time for the Clippers to win is now.
The Warriors will be hot on their heels. The team flirted with the idea of trading for Kevin Love but decided that giving up Klay Thompson might require Stephen Curry to play defense, which would be bad. Instead, they stuck with Thompson, a fantastic two-way shooting guard, and will live with the two-time All-Star David Lee at power forward. The Warriors had 51 wins last season, but they may have improved by saying hello to the versatile Shaun Livingston and goodbye to Coach Mark Jackson, who seemed ill suited for this roster.
The Suns added the diminutive guard Isaiah Thomas to a roster that had two star point guards in Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe. Those three may not win any defensive awards, but no one can question the excitement they will bring.
The Lakers let Pau Gasol, arguably the team’s best player, leave, but they acquired decent depth with Ed Davis and Jeremy Lin. If nothing else, watching a grizzled Kobe Bryant try to coexist with Nick Young should provide plenty of laughs, which is more than the Kings can offer after inexplicably letting Thomas leave for Phoenix after his breakout season.
Southwest
In the league’s deepest division, the Spurs outclass the competition. It would be easy to chalk up the team’s success as a product of having Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, but San Antonio has done a tremendous job each season of complementing its core. After Kawhi Leonard’s breakthrough playoff performance, the team’s Big Three is more of a Big Four. A shrewd move this year was drafting the versatile Kyle Anderson, who could develop into a younger, slimmer Boris Diaw. It will help that he is learning from the game’s best coach, Gregg Popovich.
The Mavericks are the most improved team in the division, given the additions of Chandler Parsons and Tyson Chandler, but that is balanced out some by having to decide between Raymond Felton and Jameer Nelson at point guard. The biggest question is whether last season’s breakout performance by Monta Ellis, in which he was suddenly an efficient player after years of frustration, was a fluke.
The Grizzlies and the Rockets have rosters that could easily lead to deep playoff runs. The Rockets lost Parsons and Jeremy Lin but should not miss them with Trevor Ariza and Patrick Beverley starting. The Grizzlies do not have much time left with an aging core, but a full season of Courtney Lee and the addition of Vince Carter will help.
Unfortunately for the Pelicans, every division has a team at the bottom, and they seem to be the best bet despite a stellar interior defense led by Anthony Davis and Omer Asik.
Eastern Conference
Atlantic
The Raptors found a core to build around in Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. If Terrence Ross and Jonas Valanciunas can raise their game this season as well, Toronto should have no trouble winning one of the league’s weakest divisions. With Drake providing the team with a signature celebrity fan and Masai Ujiri proving to be one of the league’s best executives, the Raptors could soon be a team that free agents are clamoring to join.
The Nets, having said goodbye to Paul Pierce, are the division’s second-best team by default. Kevin Garnett seems washed up, Brook Lopez is injured again, Deron Williams may never be the same and Joe Johnson is among the game’s most overpaid players, but that core should still be a playoff team in the East, especially if Mason Plumlee continues the progress he showed as a rookie.
Jose Calderon will be an upgrade over Raymond Felton on offense for the Knicks. But he is a tad worse on defense, and his acquisition meant saying goodbye to Tyson Chandler, so the Knicks’ defense may be horrific, unless you consider Andrea Bargnani waving his arms in front of shooters an effective strategy.
The Celtics are bad enough that Evan Turner may actually be an upgrade. The 76ers are relying on Joel Embiid’s being so funny on Twitter that no one will notice when the team is once again tanking.
Central
Chemistry is important enough in the N.B.A. that the Cavaliers acquired LeBron James and Kevin Love, two of the game’s 10 best players, and could end up losing the division to the Bulls if they do not mesh quickly. Still, the sky is the limit for Cleveland, given the talent now surrounding the incumbent point guard Kyrie Irving. James offers an upgrade in every sense of the imagination, and Love is one of the best-shooting power forwards in history.
The Bulls, however, will put up quite a fight, especially if Derrick Rose is back to full health. In his absence, Joakim Noah developed into the best passing center in the game, Jimmy Butler became an elite wing and the team signed Pau Gasol to strengthen a frontcourt that already had the defensive ace Taj Gibson. Adding two shooters — Nikola Mirotic and Doug McDermott — could make this team deadly.
The Pacers, once the symbol of team chemistry, replaced the injured Paul George and the departed Lance Stephenson with C. J. Miles and Rodney Stuckey, so a decline should be expected. The Pistons are hoping Stan Van Gundy can make magic out of a messy roster. The Bucks are hoping that Jason Kidd’s unique defensive strategy is a good fit for their athletic roster.
Southeast
The emerging Wizards could hardly ask for a better role model for their young players than Paul Pierce, who can still provide plenty of production as well. Once Bradley Beal returns from injury, he and John Wall will form one of the league’s most effective backcourts. And the frontcourt, led by Marcin Gortat and Nene, should get some help with the addition of DeJuan Blair.
Charlotte’s franchise, rechristened the Hornets, played unexpectedly strong defense last season, despite Al Jefferson’s reputation for not enjoying that side of the game. The addition of Lance Stephenson gives them a two-way wing who can help offset the loss of Josh McRoberts, and Kemba Walker could take another step forward as a point guard.
The Heat, dealing with the loss of LeBron James, will obviously take a hit, but they added enough talent to remain a playoff team even if Dwyane Wade needs quite a bit of rest.
Al Horford’s return could send the Hawks to the playoffs, for an eighth consecutive season. The Magic, endlessly rebuilding, may be the only Southeast team with little chance of qualifying for the postseason.