The New York Jets may have embarked on a six-game losing streak since opening day that has their season spiraling out of control, but they have as much reason as any this weekend to get their first divisional win against the Buffalo Bills this Sunday.
These players and coaches are fighting for jobs with chances undoubtedly on the horizon for a failing team. For a team that has not won in nearly two months, there is an abnormal amount of buzz surrounding the team after Friday's trade for receiver Percy Harvin.
The opposing Bills have encountered a similar resurgence of sorts since replacing EJ Manuel with Kyle Orton at quarterback, sporting a 4-3 record to place them right within striking distance of a once-unlikely playoff spot. However, operating without their two stud running backs, C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, will dampen their mood.
Playoffs and seeding are no longer a part of the Jets' vocabulary this year, but pride and job security certainly are. If the Jets are going to eventually turn around their otherwise disastrous season, they must find a way to knock off their division rivals in front of their home crowd.
Double Up on Sammy Watkins
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Factoring in his status as a rookie and atrocious quarterback play for the first month of the season, Sammy Watkins is putting up one of the most impressive rookie campaigns for a receiver in recent memory, even if his 35 catches through six games don't quite jump off of the page.
Watkins may as well have won the game on his own against the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday. Not only did he catch nine balls for 122 yards and two touchdowns, but he scored the winning touchdown in dramatic fashion in the dying embers of the game to pull out the win.
The formula for the Bills to have success is simple: When Watkins gets involved, they win. When he is a mere decoy, they lose.
Week | Opponent | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns | Result |
1 | Bears | 4 | 3 | 31 | 0 | Win |
2 | Dolphins | 11 | 8 | 117 | 1 | Win |
3 | Chargers | 8 | 2 | 19 | 0 | Loss |
4 | Texans | 9 | 4 | 30 | 1 | Loss |
5 | Lions | 12 | 7 | 87 | 0 | Win |
6 | Patriots | 3 | 2 | 27 | 0 | Loss |
7 | Vikings | 14 | 9 | 122 | 2 | Win |
ESPN
There is no need for Rex Ryan or defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman to overthink how they are going to tie up the Bills offense. Without a proven shutdown cornerback on the roster, countering Watkins' effectiveness with numbers is the best way to challenge the Bills passing game.
The most proven and effective cornerback on the Jets active roster is Darrin Walls (boy, was that an odd sentence to write), who should see the bulk of coverage on Watkins. Walls is a serviceable starter—he has a perfectly neutral 0.0 grade from Pro Football Focus (subscription required)—but asking him to cover one of the most explosive players in the league is a cry for trouble.
Even with a double-team at his disposal, Ryan knows how difficult it is going to be to slow down the former Clemson product, as he has already gone to desperate lengths to take Watkins off his game:
Today, Rex hopped on the media conf call w/ Sammy Watkins. Asked him not to play Sunday: http://t.co/4eeSlwvMVB via @metronewyork #Jets
— Kristian Dyer (@KristianRDyer) October 23, 2014
Obviously, the downside to doubling up on Watkins is that it leaves more room for players like receiver Robert Woods and tight end Scott Chandler.
The good news, however, is that without Jackson or Spiller in the lineup (h/t Mike Rodak of ESPN.com), the price for zoning in on Watkins is far less steep.
The Jets will have to take some gambles to overcome their deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball. There is no reason to roll the dice at their worst matchup on defense.
Percy Harvin and the Jet Sweep
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Without a doubt, all eyes will be squared on how offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg decides to use the Jets' newest offensive toy. As much as fans would love to see Harvin touch the ball on every other play, there is the unavoidable reality that Harvin's role will have to be limited with him only being on the team for barely over a week.
There are, however, some plays that will work well in the confines of a week's worth of preparation, such as the increasingly popular "jet sweep."
The jet sweep is essentially a combination between play action and misdirection: a fake handoff to one running back gets defenders flowing in the wrong direction, allowing the "sweeping" wide receiver to take the real handoff against favorable number advantages.
The Seahawks used this method to get Harvin the ball in space, with effective results. Before the snap, all but one of the offensive linemen are set to block to the left—similar to a misdirection run. Harvin goes in motion to get a running start.
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The key to this working is the two inside linebackers. They follow the initial handoff, taking them a few steps out of position to defend Harvin screaming down the opposite sideline.
This creates a line for Harvin to get an easy 10 yards or so before he even encounters a defender. With his ability, the Seahawks are able to pick up a total of 16 yards without putting the ball in the air.
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What makes the jet sweep so useful to the Jets is that it requires a little amount of timing relative to a passing play. A few reps in practice can create the timing for a handoff, while it takes months or even years to develop a complete chemistry between quarterback and receiver.
Get Eric Decker Involved Early and Often
The Bills defense is built very similar to that of the Jets: Armed with talented fronts, they both have enough weak points in the secondary that allows them to be had through the air.
Marvin's involvement will garner all of the headlines, but it is actually Eric Decker who is set to have a big afternoon against the young Stephon Gilmore.
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A first-round pick from the 2013 draft, Gilmore has had a bit of an up-and-down season as a starter. Ranked as the 88th-best cornerback in the game by Pro Football Focus, Gilmore has yielded an 81.5 completion percentage, four touchdowns and a 137.0 quarterback rating.
Not only will Decker see less attention than usual with the threat of Harvin now in the mix, but he is going against an underperforming youngster that is ripe for the picking against a veteran route-runner like Decker.
If the Jets can get Decker involved early and often, it will force the Bills to move safeties out of the box to give Gilmore help against the pass. As a result, the Jets running game can finally start to click on all cylinders, and before they know it, they have a full-fledged, balanced offensive attack motoring along.
This game may not mean much (or anything) in terms of postseason odds for the Jets, but they still have a lot at stake with pride and jobs on the line at this point of the lost season. Acquiring Harvin after a crushing loss last week gave the organization some much-needed positive vibes, and it must capitalize on this unexpected momentum.
After all, if Ryan's Jets are unable to make quick work of an Orton-led Bills team in front of their home crowd, finding reasons to keep Ryan as head coach beyond this season will be nearly impossible.
Advanced statistics provided by ProFootballFocus.com (subscription required).