Harris Co. DA's race a dead heat in new poll

HARRIS COUNTY, Texas - A newly released poll indicates it's a neck-and-neck race between candidates for Harris County district attorney, showing the incumbent Republican in serious danger and providing Democrats with a tantalizing chance to win control of the high-profile prosecutors' office for the first time in decades.

The KHOU - Houston Public Media poll couldn't be much closer, showing incumbent Republican Devon Anderson supported by 22.5% of surveyed voters compared to Democrat Kim Ogg's 22.4%.

A majority of voters are apparently still up for grabs. The poll shows 46% of likely voters undecided, with 4% saying they would vote for someone else and another 6% refusing to answer the question. The poll's margin of error is 5.4%.

"We have to think that race is wide open," said Bob Stein, the Rice University political scientist and KHOU analyst who supervised the poll conducted by the University of Houston Center for Public Policy.

Anderson, a former prosecutor and state district judge, was appointed last year to fill the office left vacant by the death of her husband, Mike. Ogg, another experienced prosecutor and a former executive director of Crime Stoppers, is seeking to unseat Anderson.

"I expect this to be a relatively close race," Stein said. "I'd have to, at this point, give Devon Anderson the advantage because so many more of the undecided voters are Republican. But why are they undecided?"

Stein found it curious that many Republicans didn't automatically commit to Anderson. It's noteworthy that pollsters phoning voters identified the candidates not only by name, but also by their party affiliation.

For almost two decades, Republicans dominated Harris County government so thoroughly Democrats didn't stand a chance of winning a countywide election. But as the population has grown and the demographics have shifted, the courthouse has become bipartisan.

The sheriff and the county attorney are now Democrats. Judges who once plastered GOP clipart all over their direct mail pieces now print mailers that don't even mention their party affiliations. And now comes an apparently close race for district attorney, perhaps the highest profile elected office in Harris County.

As long as most Houstonians have been alive, Harris County DA's have been Republicans. But for the first time in decades, a Democrat has a fighting chance of winning the race for district attorney.

"Maybe the whole state's not turning competitive or blue or purple, but it'll start probably in Harris County," Stein said. "And I think there's some reason to think this could be a trend."

Another indication of that trend might be found in the Harris County poll numbers from the governors' race. Although Democrat Wendy Davis is trailing far behind Republican Greg Abbott statewide, she's running a tight race in Harris County.

Davis won the support of 39.8% of Harris County voters, compared to Abbott's 34.5%. The poll's 5.4% makes that a statistical tie.

"Maybe this is a downballot cascade that not only will help somebody like Kim Ogg for the DA's race as a Democrat, but might affect some judicial races," Stein said.

Even though the district attorney's race looks like a toss-up, it seems many Democrats are pessimistic about their chances of winning. When asked who they thought would win regardless of who they supported, Anderson was named by 24% of voters compared to Ogg's 17%