Susan Hawk and Craig Watkins listen to the moderator during a debate that was intended to cover domestic violence issues (Lara Solt/Staff Photographer)
Grits for Breakfast had a smart take on our editorial this morning recommending Susan Hawk for Dallas County district attorney over two-term incumbent Craig Watkins.
The respected criminal justice-focused blog cited our conclusion that Watkins relied more on straight-ticket votes in his 2010 re-election bid than in his surprise 2006 debut win and noted that we specifically encouraged Dallas County Democrats to split their tickets this time:
If Watkins’ campaign had raised more money he could respond on TV before early voting begins next week to counter the impact of this endorsement and Hawk’s TV ad promising to restore voters’ “trust” in the office. Instead, he must continue bleeding through the weekend and hope that Wendy Davis’ campaign can generate extra Democratic turnout where he cannot. Watkins’ re-election in 2010 was decided on turnout and straight ticket voting. If Susan Hawk and the Dallas Morning News convince 10,000 Democrats county-wide to split tickets in the DA’s race … well, let’s just say Watkins campaign team should be in a private panic right about now. He’s still probably the betting favorite given recent Dallas County electoral trends. But Watkins faces greater danger than in 2010, and there’s a lot less he can do about it in the final month compared to four years ago.
Watkins’ position is further weakened because of his strategy of using his prosecutors to primary Democratic judges he didn’t like, a method that was in several cases successful and left factions of the party particularly upset with him. He also ran his first assistant in a failed bid for Dallas County Democratic Party Chair, which forced Democratic leaders county-wide to already choose to oppose him once this year. If just a few of them still feel bitter and defect in the secrecy of the voting booth, a close watcher of the Dallas vote count wouldn’t be surprised at an upset.
Having performed opposition research in dozens of political campaigns, at this point I’ve broken out the popcorn and am watching the three big DA’s races — Dallas, Harris, Bexar — mainly for the entertainment value. There’s nothing I can do about them in these closing weeks and the voters’ whimsy does not respond to reasoned argument. Watkins has done a lot of things I liked, even admired, but he’s also brought virtually all of his present problems on himself. His fate is up to Dallas voters, now … God help us all.
There’s a heap of good analysis in those paragraphs that connect a few dots. Grits could have a detail wrong here or there, but I don’t think so.
It was pretty clear headed into the March primaries that Watkins was stepping on toes and didn’t care, which is his right. He wanted to run off judges he didn’t like, and in an increasingly Democratic county like Dallas, his choice was to put up candidates in primaries.
Your local editorial board awarded him a split decision from election night, as his slate did about as well as he could have hoped. We also asked this: “Will the entire party rally around Watkins now? Or will his bid as power broker leave lingering wounds?”
It’s not a reach to believe that Watkins’ lousy fund-raising for his general election bid has been hurt by lingering hurt feelings. Again, it’s his right to not care, but that doesn’t change the reality.
Of course, in Dallas County, it will take more than a big money edge and some TV ads for Hawk to pull off what still must be viewed as an upset. Barring a Republican get-out-the-vote effort of historic proportions, it will require some Democrats to split their tickets, instead of marking one bubble at the top and heading home.
Grits puts the need at 10,000 voters, and, based on the 2010 results, that would do it. That was when Watkins faced former Judge Danny Clancy in the general and escaped with a 5,000-vote win among about 412,000 cast.
Straight-ticket votes made up 73 percent of Watkins’ total. Without straight tickets — or among voters who chose best candidates instead of favorite parties — Clancy had 71,169 votes to Watkins’ 55,971.
That dynamic was similar, but less pronounced, in 2006, when Watkins beat Toby Shook by about 7,000 votes out of about 232,000 cast. In that year, straight tickets made up 64 percent of Watkins’ total.
Can Hawk flip 10,000 straight-ticket Democrats? I would have said it’s doubtful a few weeks ago, especially as her campaign struggled to find traction. With early voting starting Monday, her chances look better, but she had better have her walking shoes on with a plan to knock on a lot of doors this weekend.