The Upshot
Arkansas, a Demographic Challenge for Democrats
By NATE COHN
Changes in the state’s population have helped create a political climate far more favorable to Republicans.
Election 2014
The Race for the Midterms in the House and Senate
The Upshot
How to Win the Senate: The States Each Party Needs
By JOSH KATZ
The Democratic path to 50 Senate seats is narrow, but still very possible. Here's how.
The Upshot
Kansas Faces Additional Revenue Shortfalls After Tax Cuts
By JOSH BARRO
Three more months of data are in, and the state is still collecting much less income tax than it expected.
The Upshot
G.O.P. Wins, but Battlefield Has Changed
By NATE COHN
The Democrats have struggled to defend their Senate ground but are still in the game because they’ve brought Kansas and Georgia into play.
The Upshot
Political TV Ads Can Be Wasteful. But That’s Changing.
By DEREK WILLIS
The tools to target the most valuable segments of the electorate are slowly being put to use.
The Upshot
Early Voting Offers No Proof That Democrats Have Improved Turnout Effort
By NATE COHN
Nevada’s early voting numbers highlight the challenge of interpreting the data. Colorado’s numbers may be more relevant.
New Jersey Congress
Opponent Attacks New Jersey Congressman’s Record on Hurricane Recovery
By KATE ZERNIKE
Roy Cho has portrayed Representative Scott Garrett, a sixth-term incumbent in a suburban district, as only a reluctant supporter of relief funds two years ago.
The Upshot
Why House Republicans Alienate Hispanics: They Don’t Need Them
By NATE COHN
Even if they did not receive a single vote from a Latino, anywhere in the United States, Republicans could most likely retain control of the House.
The Upshot
A Record Drop in the Unemployment Rate for a Midterm Cycle
By JUSTIN WOLFERS
Many people still feel a lack of opportunity as wage growth remains stagnant.
States in Play
With Farms Fading and Urban Might Rising, Power Shifts in Iowa
By MICHAEL BARBARO
A way of life is eroding as small towns hemorrhage younger residents, a potent but unpredictable undercurrent in a closely fought Senate race.
In Raising Immigration, G.O.P. Risks Backlash After Election
By JEREMY W. PETERS
Republicans’ use of illegal immigration as an issue in several Senate campaigns is raising questions about what the party wants to be in the longer term.
The Upshot
The Methodology Behind the Upshot’s Estimates of Hispanic Republicans
By NATE COHN
First, we posed a tough question: Did Republicans need Hispanic voters to retain the House in 2012?
Before Bigger Stage, Walker Must Win Wisconsin
By MONICA DAVEY
Scott Walker’s job as governor is not all that is at stake: His currency as a presidential contender will surely vanish if he cannot win a second term.
Supreme Court Allows Texas to Use Strict Voter ID Law in Coming Election
By ADAM LIPTAK
The decision, which contained no reasoning, set the ground rules for the current election; early voting there starts on Monday.
Outspoken Governor Tries to Squeak By in 3-Way Maine Race
By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
Gov. Paul R. LePage, a tough-talking Republican, is seeking a second term in a state known for electing moderates and independents.
The Upshot
Was Charlie Crist’s Fan Against the Rules? It’s Complicated
By JOSH BARRO
The rules at the Crist-Scott debate allowed for fans if “necessary” to correct “temperature issues.” But who decides what temperature is an issue?
The Upshot
Not Following the Midterms? You’re Missing All the Fun
By NATE COHN
There are a dozen competitive and close Senate contests. All around, it might be the most compelling general election in a decade.
Kris Kobach Pushed Kansas to the Right. Now Kansas Is Pushing Back.
By TRIP GABRIEL
The Kansas secretary of state has become a lightning rod on restrictive voting and illegal immigration and now faces a tough re-election fight.
For Cuomo, a Low-Key Book Signing
By THOMAS KAPLAN
Befitting Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s political stature, the event was heavily guarded and stage-managed, but it attracted only a modest crowd of would-be readers of his new memoir.
The Upshot
Two Polls That Highlight the Challenges of Polling
By NATE COHN
A chance to survey people on the same subject at nearly the same time, using two different methods that have been hotly debated among pollsters.
The Upshot
Republicans’ Chances Reach a New High
By JOSH KATZ
Kansas becomes a tossup, and several key campaigns are trending toward the Republicans.
Democrats’ Hopes to Gain in House Fade
By JONATHAN WEISMAN
The party is giving up efforts to unseat Republicans in several races to focus its money and effort on protecting its embattled incumbents.
Connecticut Governor’s Race
Vitriol Flows as Malloy Faces Foley Again in Connecticut Governor’s Race
By JOSEPH BERGER
In debates between Gov. Dannel P. Malloy and Thomas C. Foley, who squared off in the 2010 race, the level of hostility is unusual for the state’s politicians.
New York’s 11th Congressional District
Under Indictment, Grimm Fights to Keep His Congressional Seat
By JASON HOROWITZ
The race between Representative Michael Grimm and his opponent, Domenic Recchia, has grown toxic as they fight for voters on Staten Island and in Brooklyn.
Texas May Proceed With Voter ID Law, Appeals Court Finds
By ERIK ECKHOLM
The judges said confusion would result if they blocked the law before the election, but they put off consideration of whether it should stand permanently.
| Senate General Election | End date | Dem. | Rep. | Margin | Adjusted margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kan. | Rasmussen Reports | 8/7 | 40% | 44% | Roberts* +4 | +3 |
| Kan. | YouGov | 7/24 | 37% | 54% | Roberts* +17 | +16 |
| Kan. | SurveyUSA | 7/22 | 33% | 38% | Roberts* +5 | +5 |
*IncumbentNote: Adjusted margins include adjustments for pollster house effects.
