Nicola Sturgeon’s ascent to the SNP throne is perfectly timed

I suppose we’ll all just have to live with the epithet by which Scotland is now known throughout the globe: the most scared wee country in the world… for a few years longer anyway. But at least we can also claim to be the most political. Nicola Sturgeon’s coronation last week as leader of the SNP provided another political landmark in a febrile, seven-year period in Scotland that’s been full of them. The MSP for Glasgow Southside becomes the first female leader of the SNP and, next month, will also become Scotland’s first female first minister. She may yet also be the person to whom it falls to apply the coup de grace to the Labour party in Scotland, although some may reasonably conclude that Labour’s conduct during the independence campaign may yet go down as the longest suicide note in Scottish political history.

Aside from the disappointment of the referendum outcome, it’s difficult to imagine that Sturgeon could have taken over the running of the party and the country at a more favourable time for the SNP. From now until the Scottish election in 2016, she will be buttressed by the nationalists’ overall majority in Holyrood, one that the party is widely expected to replicate and increase. She is also faced by a Labour party in Scotland in complete disarray and seemingly without a clue about how to fix it.

Three years after their annihilation at the Holyrood polls they still do not appear to have grasped the reality of their situation. Their slavish devotion to the Tory-led campaign for the union saw them punished by their own supporters, tens of thousands of whom voted yes in solid Labour enclaves. Labour’s Scottish membership has rarely been lower while the SNP is now the third largest party in the UK. Labour’s response: people know we still offer the best prospect of keeping the Tories out. While the rest of Scotland has moved on to digital technology Labour is still working with an abacus. Apart from the estimable Kezia Dugdale and Jenny Marra, there is no one else on its frontbench you’d trust to go out for the messages.

At Westminster, in a desperate bid to ward off the Ukip demons, Labour is already beginning to deploy the language of the far right and to get tougher on immigration by looking at English language tests. If Sturgeon can feed off this and artfully deploy her new battalions soon then she may yet also be able to cut the number of Scottish Labour MPs returned to Westminster next year and thus hand victory to David Cameron and five more years of this most unfair and reactionary among British administrations. This would underpin the confidence with which Sturgeon believes she can yet deliver independence to Scotland.

Labour’s response to all of this has been a nasty one. Over the last year, we have had a very unsubtle briefing campaign by people close to Jim Murphy to soften up some Labour MSPs about the prospect of their man becoming Scottish leader. If this careerist is the answer to Scottish Labour’s needs then nurse really is about to switch off the life-support machine.

In the last seven days, the briefing against Johann Lamont has continued with the usual suspects putting Gordon Brown forward. This fails to take account of two things: Lamont is not as weak and unsupported as they think and reports of Brown’s role in saving the union are wildly exaggerated, often by the usual familiars. He came late to the campaign; gallumphed around a few town halls and delivered a pledge on extra devolved powers that began to unravel in the time it took to read the first paragraph. Following his “barnstorming” speeches, the four local authority areas to vote yes were all in Labour heartlands.

This too is a man who once saw himself as president of the World Bank and a roaming international statesman – a sort of ethical Tony Blair. Would he consent to scrabbling about for a safe Holyrood seat before launching a bid for the leadership? This seems unlikely. Yet perhaps the lure of being acclaimed as the man who saved his party in Scotland before he rode off into the sunset like a latterday Shane while we all shouted: “We love you, Gordon,” might yet appeal to his ego.

Sturgeon can hardly have expected such a favourable heavenly alignment to have occurred as she surveys the country she will lead. And yet… she doesn’t need me to tell her that the chalice may become a little bitter and that complacency must be avoided. Together with Peter Murrell, the party’s chief executive (and also her husband), and Derek Mackay, the astute local government minister, she will be planning her first 100 days in office. Top of the agenda will be how to manage the expectations of the new members the SNP has gained since the referendum, bringing the numbers up to over 60,000.

There have already been dark whisperings (some from within her own party) of an unhealthy husband and wife dynasty being created here. Murrell, though, is out on his own as Scotland’s ablest political strategist and, in any case, his wife has a grand opportunity to plug into the spirit of a new way of doing politics by taking heed of the expectations of her party’s new and diverse members, many of whom will never previously have been politically engaged. Her announcement of a pre-coronation nationwide tour to listen to these is a good start.

Many of these people will be expecting a radical anti-cuts, anti-privatisation, anti-corporate agenda from the SNP and they want it now. The trick for Sturgeon and her strategists is to keep as many of these new friends on board for as long as possible by tutoring them in the arts of the long game. Next month’s conference in Perth may make for some interesting scenarios, not the least of which will be seeing how the new intake views the “passed by acclamation” approach that passes for SNP conference debate.

Nicola Sturgeon’s tour will let her assess the political character and timbre of the new recruits and whether or not they constitute a double-edged sword for her.