TIME 2016 Election

The Pros and Cons of ‘President Grandma’

Hillary Bill Chelsea Clinton Baby
Former President Bill Clinton and his wife, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, hold their granddaughter Charlotte Clinton Mezvinsky after their daughter Chelsea Clinton gave birth in New York on Sept. 27, 2014. Jon Davidson—Reuters

The challenges and benefits of running for the land’s highest office as a grandmother

Hillary Clinton has had many titles: mother, First Lady of the United States, U.S. Senator, Secretary of State and, most recently, grandmother. In her last presidential campaign, it was her experience as a senator and, to a lesser extent, first lady, that were the selling points of her campaign. But if she runs again in 2016, she won’t just be touting her experience as top diplomat, she’ll also sports a different kind of distinction: the first viable presidential contender who also happens to be a grandmother.

There are pros and cons in politics to the title of grandma, some of them uniquely Clintonian. At a time when Clinton’s recent remarks about not driving a car since 1996 and struggling to make ends meet after Bill Clinton’s presidency made her seem out of touch with the populist times, being a grandmother makes her relatable.

“As we saw in 2008, she had a more difficult time relating to voters on a personal level,” said Jennifer Lawless, director of the Women & Politics Institute at American University. “Being about to tell stories about having a first grandchild might serve as one way to connect with the millions of Americans who watched Chelsea grow up and who are now grandparents’ themselves. Any benefit will surely be tiny, but it could drive up empathy a bit.”

If Clinton chooses to promote her grandmotherly status, it would be the opposite tack that she took in 2008 where she was so concerned about showing voters she wasn’t a weak woman that she buried the historic nature of her campaign. In that regard, Clinton is the opposite of most women running for office, who try to avoid mentioning their families because they don’t want to seem soft. Being perceived as tough “is particularly important for executive offices, where strength and toughness, and singular leadership, are valued most,” said Kelly Dittmar, a scholar at Rutgers University’s Center for American Women in Politics. “Of course, some of this will be very unique to Hillary Clinton, as she struggled in her last presidential campaign to empathize with voters and was often criticized for being too hard.”

Being a grandpa almost never hurt a male presidential candidate. Few remarked on Mitt Romney’s grandchildren except, perhaps, at the large number of them. Let’s face it: There will be a double standard for Clinton compared to any other male politician running for President. The image of a blue-haired granny is a tried-and-true American stereotype, and one that is antithetical to the image of the commander-in-chief with his finger on the button.

But again, Clinton’s previous campaign and life experience defies that contrast. “While it might be different for other candidates, particularly female candidates who are less known and still need to prove their competence, I think for Hillary Clinton it is a positive,” said Michele Swers, an associate professor in American Government at Georgetown University and author of “The Difference women Make.”

“Clinton spent years developing her persona of expertise and toughness,” Swers said.

But the biggest risk of being the grandma-candidate is that it does remind voters of Clinton’s age. On Election Day 2016, she’ll be 69, just months younger than the oldest U.S. President, Ronald Reagan, when he was elected in 1980. And it was Clinton’s husband Bill, who successfully painted the last President to be a grandparent in office, George H. W. Bush, as old and out of touch when he beat him in the 1992 election.

TIME 2014 midterm elections

Drugs, Minimum Wage and Gambling: Inside 2014’s $1 Billion-Plus Ballot Initiatives

Demand for marijuana edibles is pushing several Colorado manufacturers to expand their facilities or move to larger quarters.
Steve Herin, Master Grower at Incredibles, works on repotting marijuana plants in the grow facility on Wednesday, August 13, 2014 in Denver, Colorado. Kent Nishimura—Denver Post via Getty Images

Bored with the midterms? There’s a lot of (expensive) drama on the ballot that doesn’t involve candidates

The 2014 elections are shaping up to be the most expensive in history, not for electoral campaigns, but for ballot initiatives. More than $1 billion has already been spent on them, according to the National Institute of Money in State Politics. And all that money could swing some key races.

Studies have shown controversial ballot initiatives can boost turnout as much as 8% in midterm elections, which typically see lower turnout than polling during presidential elections. Since Oregon first kicked off ballot initiatives in the early 1900’s, the practice has grown steadily — that is, until this year. Despite the increase in spending, 2014 actually has the least number of total initiatives — only 155 in 41 states, down from 188 in 2012—since 1988, reflecting state efforts to limit legislating by ballot.

Some of the millions already spent were intended to keep certain measures off the ballot. In Alaska, for example, oil and gas companies spent $170 per voter to block a bid to raise oil and gas taxes. In Colorado, energy companies also spent millions to keep fracking initiatives off the ticket. Also not making the cut this year: gay marriage and a push to break California into six states that, while strange, gained a lot of attention early on.

Perhaps the main issue on ballots nationwide this cycle is marijuana. Two states — Oregon and Alaska — plus the District of Columbia have initiatives to follow Colorado and Washington in legalizing recreational marijuana. But it’s a push to make Florida the 24th state to legalize medical marijuana that could impact an electoral race. Former Democratic Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s bid to get his old gubernatorial seat back could see a boost from the measure, as left-leaning voters tend to support marijuana reform. Crist allies have already spent $4 million on the initiative with opponents, including incumbent Florida Gov. Republican Rick Scott and Sheldon Adelson, spending $2.5 million to defeat it thus far.

Another big issue is minimum wage, with four red states—Arkansas, Alaska, Nebraska and South Dakota—considering raising the minimum wage. Since 2002, all 10 ballot initiatives to raise state minimum wages have passed, and polling shows these initiatives look like they have good shots at approval as well. The pushes could help embattled Democratic incumbent Senators Mark Pryor in Arkansas and Mark Begich in Alaska.

Colorado Sen. Mark Udall, another Democratic incumbent fighting to keep his seat, is hoping that a personhood amendment —which defines life as beginning from the moment of conception — will help him stick around. His opponent, Rep. Cory Gardner, also opposes the amendment, but has voiced support for personhood initiatives in the past, creating an opening Udall has been exploiting. North Dakota has a similar initiative on the ballot, and Tennessee has a measure that would allow the state legislature to amend the state constitution to strip out abortion rights.

However, some of the most expensive ballot issues are not national ones. In California, two initiatives — one to increase the limit of non-economic malpractice damages from $250,000 to $1.1 million and another requiring state approval of changes in insurance rates — could see as much as $100 million in combined spending to sway voters. And Oregon and Colorado have controversial initiatives mandating the labeling of certain foods that contain genetically modified organisms. Last year, companies like Pepsi, Coca Cola and Monsanto spent $22 million defeating a similar push in Washington where proponents spent $9 million trying to pass it.

Oregon also has a controversial immigration initiative that would uphold a law allowing four-year driver’s licenses for those who cannot prove legal presence in the U.S. Another big-spending item is a spate of gambling initiatives in seven states expected to draw more than $100 million, including a hard-fought initiative in Massachusetts that would repeal a 2011 law allowing gambling resorts that would halt construction on sites.

A gun rights conundrum could happen in Washington, which looks poised to pass two initiatives that countermand one another. One would require universal background checks for all guns, and another forbids more extensive background checks than those required at the federal level. Officials say such a situation has never happened before, and no one is sure what would happen if both pass. Also on guns, Alabama is also looking to become the third state after Louisiana and Missouri to pass a “fundamental right to bear arms,” making it harder to restrict firearm access.

Alabama is also seeking to become the eighth state to forbid state’s recognition of laws violating its policies, including all foreign law. This measure is a follow up to a bill introduced by state Sen. Gerald Allen last year that specifically references Sharia law.

Missouri and Connecticut are looking to joining 33 other states and the District of Columbia in early voting.

And, finally, Maine is looking to ban bear baiting, trapping or the use of dogs to hunt bears. Long live Smokey.

TIME Congress

Gillibrand’s Harasser Revealed as Late Hawaii Senator

Sen. Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii, is interviewed in his U.S. Capitol office on July 26, 2012.
Sen. Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii, is interviewed in his U.S. Capitol office on July 26, 2012. Chris Maddaloni—CQ-Roll Call

Report indicates it was Daniel Inouye

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) made waves in her recent book when she revealed that one of her “favorite” older U.S. senators once told her not to “lose too much weight now” after having her second child because “I like my girls chubby.”

Gillibrand told TIME two weeks ago that she wouldn’t name which senator had said this to her. “It’s less important who they are than what they said,” she said, adding she that hoped relaying the story would make women feel more comfortable when similar things happened to them. But The New York Times, citing unnamed sources, reports that that the Senator in question was the late Daniel Inouye, the legendary Hawaii Democrat and World War II veteran who passed away in 2012. The Times also points out that Inouye had a dark chapter in his history: In 1992 his hairdresser accused him of forcing her to have sex with him.

Gillibrand’s office declined to comment on the report.

TIME

Democrats Praise Party Chair After Critical Report

Debbie Wasserman Schultz Democrat
Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chair, Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Democrat of Florida, speaks at the DNC's Leadership Forum Issues Conference in Washington on Sept. 19, 2014. Mandel Ngan—AFP/Getty Images

A day after a brutal story questioned her competence, Democrats from Obama to Hillary celebrated Debbie Wasserman Schultz

President Barack Obama praised Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz on Friday, at a time her leadership of the party is being sharply questioned.

“I want to thank Debbie for the great work that she is doing to keep our party strong,” Obama said on the stage of the Democratic Women’s Leadership Forum in Washington. “Nobody anywhere works harder than Debbie Wasserman Schultz. I want to thank her for her incredible efforts.”

Kind words. But according to a 4,000-word Politico story this week, Obama rarely includes the DNC chair in his political meetings and thinks little of the job she’s doing—so little that his Administration actively looked to replace her in 2012, but decided it would ultimately be more hassle than it’d be worth.

Obama wasn’t the only one with effusive praise for Wasserman Schultz. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton complimented Wasserman Schultz earlier in the day. “Debbie wears so many hats so well: DNC chair, trusted friend, congresswoman, mom,” she said.

But according to the Politico article, Clinton will never forgive Wasserman Schultz, who co-chaired her 2008 presidential bid, for secretly calling the Obama campaign late in the primary slugfest and secretly pledging her support.

Also effusive of Wasserman Schultz was Vice President Joe Biden. “I’ve never seen anyone work as hard and as tirelessly as Debbie does,” Biden said. “She’s like my little sister.”

Which is perhaps why Wasserman Schultz was over the top on her praise of Biden—perhaps the only prominent Democrat named in the Politico story whose aides didn’t trash her—and hinted at supporting him for President in 2016 against presumed frontrunner Clinton. “Joe Biden is a national treasure… There’s a reason I wore a Joe Biden button [when he ran for President] in 1988 even after someone else won the nomination,” she told the crowd. “Of course, I’m neutral as DNC chair, but I thought you should know that.”

TIME White House

Joe Biden’s Gaffe-Ridden Week

Vice President Joe Biden Gaffes
Vice-President Joe Biden looks on during a bilateral meeting between President Obama and President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on Sept. 18, 2014. Olivier Douliery—Corbis

Joe Biden, known for his verbal gaffes, has had a tough week

Speaking at the Democratic Women’s Leadership Forum, Vice President Joe Biden on Friday praised former Sen. Bob Packwood, who resigned in 1995 after 19 women accused him of sexual harassment and assault.

Err, awkward!

“It was Republicans that expanded access to the polls. It was Republicans in the judiciary committee that did motor voter,” Biden said in arguing that the GOP has moved to the political fringe. “It’s Republicans that were involved. Guys like Mack Mathias and [Bob] Packwood and many others. It wasn’t Democrats alone.”

Biden’s remarks capped a rough week. On Wednesday, he called lenders of bad loans to people serving in the military “Shylocks,” a derogatory name for Jews, earning him a rebuke form the Anti-Defamation League. Also, this week, Biden referred to the First Prime Minister of Singapore as “the Wisest Man in the Orient,” an antiquated word deemed offensive by many Asians. And at an event in Iowa, Biden seemed to leave the door open for ground troops in Iraq to fight the militant group ISIS, a day after President Barack Obama specifically rejected such an option.

Of course, Biden has long history of gaffes, but as Vice President he’s generally reined in his verbosity.

But five in a week is a lot, even for him. Perhaps impending lame-duckdom is loosening his tongue.

TIME 2016 Election

Hillary Clinton Pledges to Campaign for Female Democratic Candidates

Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton addresses the Democratic National Committee's Women's Leadership Forum annual Issues Conference in Washington on Sept. 19, 2014.
Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton addresses the Democratic National Committee's Women's Leadership Forum annual Issues Conference in Washington on Sept. 19, 2014. Jim Bourg—Reuters

Calling out Senate and gubernatorial candidates by name, Clinton pledges to help get every woman on the ballot elected

Hillary Clinton plunged back into the political waters Friday by pledging to work to get all the female Democratic candidates on the ballot elected in November.

“I can’t think of a better way to make the House work again than electing every woman on the ballot,” Clinton told the Democratic Women’s Leadership Forum, a group she helped start more than 20 years ago with former Second Lady Tipper Gore. “There are 10 women running for the Senate, six women running for governor and I wish I could vote for all of them.”

Clinton called out several candidates by name: Senate challengers Michelle Nunn in Georgia, Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky and West Virginia’s Natalie Tennant, incumbent Sens. Kay Hagan in North Carolina and Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, and House candidate Staci Appel in Iowa.

The former Secretary of State particularly tout former Trek Bicycle executive Mary Burke, who is challenging Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. “Burke she is offering a choice between more angry gridlock,” Clinton said, “and… smart progressive policies.”

Clinton said she wanted to see a movement of women rise up to take back the government. “We’re in the home stretch and it all comes down on who shows up to vote,” she told the crowd of female Democratic organizers, many of whom will be relied on to turn out female voters in November. “This country will maintain a level playing field so whether you’re the grandchild of a president, or the grandchild of a janitor, whether you were born in a city or a small rural village, no matter who you are you have the right to inherit the American dream.”

TIME 2016 Election

Hillary Clinton Calls for a Women’s ‘Movement’ Ahead of Elections

Hillary Rodham Clinton
Former Sec. of State Hillary Rodham Clinton speaks during U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin's annual fundraising Steak Fry, Sept. 14, 2014, in Indianola, Iowa. Charlie Neibergall—AP

“These issues have to be in the life blood of this election and any election”

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Thursday called for a women’s “movement” on economic issues ahead of the midterm elections.

“These issues have to be in the life blood of this election and any election,” the presumed 2016 Democratic front-runner said. “We need people to feel that they’re part of a movement, that it’s not just part of an election, it’s part of a movement to really empower themselves, their families and take the future over in a way that is going to give us back the country that we care so much about.”

Clinton was speaking on a panel at the liberal Washington think tank Center for American Progress.

Democrats, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, who shared the stage with Clinton on Thursday, have pushed to make women’s economic issues the forefront of the party’s 2014 campaign. Democrats lost the female vote in 2010 for the first time since the Reagan era, and with it control of the House and six Senate seats. They are trying to avoid a similar Republican wave this year. “Why now? What is our strategy? Well, it’s because we want women to vote,” Pelosi told the crowd.

The issue is also near and dear to Clinton’s heart. Many of her advisors from her failed 2008 campaign say that, in retrospect, she should have emphasized the historic nature of her campaign more. Clinton lost women to Barack Obama in nearly half the primaries they fought.

As Secretary of State, Clinton focused on bolstering international support for women and girls. In her second political appearance after resigning from that office more than a year ago, Clinton kept her focus on those topics. “We talk about a glass ceiling, but these [minimum wage] women don’t even have a secure floor under them,” she said at the time.

The Democratic leaders lamented Thursday what they called Republican obstruction of the women’s economic agenda in Congress. The GOP has blocked Democratic efforts to raise the minimum wage—which disproportionally affects women—to $10.10 an hour, to fund universal pre-Kindergarten and other expanded child care efforts, paid maternity and paternity leaves and paid medical leave.

Clinton noted that by stymying women’s access to the workforce, the U.S. leaves 10% of increased GDP “on the table.”

“The argument is grounded in reality, but unfortunately the reality is not the context that these decisions are being made,” Clinton said. “Unfortunately, the Congress… is living in a reality-free zone. Politicians have to listen, and if they don’t it’s at their own peril.”

TIME 2014 Election

Georgia Senate Race Becomes a Battle of the Bushes

David Perdue Georgia Senate Race
David Perdue waves to supporters after declaring victory in the Republican primary runoff for nomination to the U.S. Senate from Georgia, at his election-night party in Atlanta, July 22, 2014. John Bazemore—AP

The former President endorses the Republican in the race while his son attacks

Former Dollar General CEO David Perdue flew to Kennebunkport, Maine over the weekend to seek former President George H. W. Bush’s endorsement of his bid to fill an open Senate seat in Georgia.

Bush’s endorsement of the Republican candidate should have been a no-brainer. But the former President has a special affinity for Perdue’s Democratic opponent, Michelle Nunn, who is on leave from her job as CEO of Bush’s Points of Light Foundation. Bush has said in the past that he was “lucky” to have Nunn, who came to work with the Bush Family Foundation after Points of Light merged in 1992 with City Cares, a national volunteer organization she’d started in Georgia.

Bush did end up endorsing Perdue but he didn’t mention Nunn, saying his support for Perdue grew out of his increasing opposition to the Senate Democratic leadership. Control of the upper chamber is at stake this November. “I have lost any confidence in the current Senate leadership, and believe David Perdue will be an independent voice for Georgia while working for positive solutions to our toughest challenges,” Bush, 90, said in a statement. “Barbara and I commend him to every Georgian voter who cares about America’s future.”

But then on Monday, Bush’s son Neil Bush, who is chairman of the Points of Light board, issued a statement expressing unhappiness with Perdue. At issue is a a Perdue campaign that says Points of Light gave money to “inmates and terrorists.”

“That’s ridiculous. It really makes my blood boil to think that someone would make that kind of an allegation, whether it’s an independent political group or a candidate for office,” Neil Bush, 59, told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “Anyone who makes that claim needs to understand the facts and then they need to denounce those claims. To attack an organization founded by my father, whose integrity is unimpeachable, to smear our organization for political gain, is in my opinion shameful.”

The line was drawn from internal research into its own weaknesses the Nunn campaign compiled, which was then leaked to the press. Perdue’s campaign on Wednesday said it had no plans to take down the ad, despite Bush’s criticism. “Michelle Nunn’s own campaign plan highlights serious concerns about her group’s association with terrorist-linked organizations,” said Megan Whittemore, a Perdue spokeswoman. “The people of Georgia will have to decide if that’s who they want representing them in the U.S. Senate.”

But opposition research documents tend to paint worst-case scenario attacks, and even FactCheck.org said the Perdue attack distorted Nunn’s leaked memo. “Actually, the grants refer to $13,500 that eBay sellers—not the foundation—donated to the U.S. affiliate of the international charity Islamic Relief Worldwide,” the group said. “Also, there is no evidence Islamic Relief USA, a federally approved charity, has ties to the U.S.-designated terrorist group Hamas.”

Nunn said in a statement that she was “appreciative of what Neil Bush said.”

“Washington can learn a lot from organizations like Points of Light,” Nunn said. “But David Perdue playing politics and falsely attacking an organization that helps so many is exactly what’s wrong with Washington and politics today. David Perdue should take down his dishonest ads and quit falsely attacking Points of Light.”

TIME 2016 presidential election

Iowa’s Leftwing Anti-Hillary Voters Look to Bernie Sanders

Though neither has declared their candidacy, dueling events show Democratic divisions

(Des Moines, Iowa)It is perhaps telling that the host of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ event Sunday night in Des Moines, Dave Swinton, has just rushed back from the Harkin Steak Fry in Indianola, where Hillary Clinton made an appearance the same day, flipping red meat and hinting at a run.

The 50-year-old senior pastor plans on caucusing for Clinton if she runs in 2016, and his wife, Shari, couldn’t resist the opportunity to take the whole family out to the event just 30 miles south. Swinton left most of his family behind while former President Bill Clinton was speaking so he could make it back in time to set up for the Sanders event scheduled in the basement of his Des Moines church, Grace United Methodist.

Swinton is curious to hear Sen. Sanders, an Independent, speak. A progressive group Swinton often works with has rented out his church’s basement for the event.

“Hillary seems to be the strongest candidate, and I have a lot of confidence in her leadership,” he says, taking a break from setting up chairs. “I thought her speech today hit all the right notes.”

Swinton’s political leanings show the uphill battle in store for a politician like Sanders in trying to gain traction in the 2016 Democratic primaries, should he decide to challenge the 800-pound shadow gorilla in the race, the former Secretary of State.

At the 37th annual Harkin Steak Fry—where Hillary Clinton received the tacit endorsement of Iowa’s powerful Democratic senator and Steak Fry host Tom Harkin— earlier Sunday afternoon, a crowd of more than 10,000 roared in approval when she hinted that she may just run again.

“Hi, Iowa,” Clinton yelled. “I’m baaaack!”

By contrast, Sanders’ event was a relatively low-key affair attended by more than 450 people–still a decent crowd, considering the next caucuses are more than 16 months away. Most who showed were left-leaning populists who supported John Edwards in 2008 and consider themselves solidly in the anti-Clinton camp.

“I like the issues Bernie’s hitting, his anger, because I’m angry,” says Mark Brooks, 62, an Air Force veteran who believes Clinton is too “corporate” to be a good president. “This isn’t the country I defended,” he adds.

Sanders’ message resounded with Brooks. Sanders noted, “We have more people living in poverty than any other time in the history of the United States of America,” touching on 2008-era Edwards’ populist message on poverty.

“It’s a crying shame!” a man yelled in the audience.

“It is a crying shame,” Sanders replied.

Calling for a new jobs program, investment in education and the public funding of elections, Sanders highlights that economic disparity in America has never been greater.

In his speech, Sanders rattles off figures that point to the unfairness that many of his supporters are most concerned about: that top 25 U.S. hedge fund managers made $24 billion last year, or the equivalent of the annual salaries of 450,000 public school teachers. That Walmart is now the largest employer in America while the Walton family, which owns Walmart, possesses as much wealth as the bottom 40% of all earners in America.

“It’s called indentured servitude!” another man yelled—at the top of Sanders’ speech, the politician encouraged “small-d” democratic participation, or what other candidates might consider heckling.

“Sometimes, it is,” Sanders answered gravely.

Right now, Sanders, who would have to switch parties to run for the Democratic nomination, is Clinton’s only major competition on the progressive left. But that doesn’t mean liberals aren’t hungering for some more competition. Stephen Blobaum, 51, a Des Moines salesman, also caucused for Edwards in 2008. He and his father, Reed Blobaum, 79, came to see Sanders speak and support his fire, but both are holding out hope that Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren will make a run.

“She’s my girlfriend,” Reed Blobaum says with a cheeky smile. “’We admire what Bernie’s doing, but she’s an accomplisher. She gets things done. And Hillary needs to get done.”

TIME 2016 Election

Hillary Clinton Flips a Steak in Iowa

Hillary and Bill Clinton cook steaks with Iowa Senator Tom Harken at his annual Steak Fry in Indianola,  Iowa
Hillary and Bill Clinton cook steaks with Iowa Senator Tom Harken at his annual Steak Fry in Indianola, Iowa, on Sept. 14, 2014 Brooks Kraft—Corbis for TIME

As speculation about 2016 reaches fever pitch, former Secretary of State teases crowd: "Well it is true, I am thinking about it"

Sitting under one of three huge white tents set up in a hot-air balloon field outside of Indianola, Iowa, Bethany Moriarty was digging into a plate of steak. The attraction of a “steak fry” should ostensibly be the meat, but Moriarty, 30, who has “Ready for Hillary” buttons festooned across her chest, is hopping with excitement to see former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

“I’m by far the most political person of my family, so I kinda dragged them here,” she says, gesturing across the table to her mother, Rosemary, 65, and her sister, Amanda, 35.

Like many other of the 7,000 Iowans who’ve gathered for Iowa Senator Tom Harkin’s 37th annual Steak Fry, a Democratic fundraiser that has become known as a presidential launchpad, their main topic of conversation is Clinton’s potential candidacy in 2016. “I caucused for Barack Obama in 2008,” Bethany says. “A lot was the hype and the hope we felt behind him and I still feel it. But I feel he’s been pushed aside.”

All three came to the Steak Fry this year to see Clinton speak on her first trip back to Iowa since her 2008 caucus loss. Bethany says she’ll caucus for Clinton in 2016, if she runs. But Rosemary is dubious. “I don’t think America is ready,” she says. “There’s a lot of people who won’t vote for her because she’s a woman. Like Barack Obama, the first African American, when he got elected, but Congress wouldn’t work with him.”

Amanda, twirling her fork pensively in her potato salad, chimes in: “And if you think that, than there are 100,000 people who think it,” she says. “Well, if you say that it becomes true,” Bethany counters. “We have to believe and work to make that not true.” Her mother and sister shrug, clearly not moved to action.

Clinton’s candidacy is still a figment of Bethany’s — and most of the national media’s — imagination. But that hasn’t stopped widespread speculation that Clinton’s visit to the Harkin event represents the unofficial kickoff of her 2016 run. Her shadow campaign, “Ready for Hillary,” has parked a bus emblazoned with its logo outside the Steak Fry and volunteers are waiting five deep to sign up.

The Steak Fry has a carnival-like atmosphere. Iowans in droves wear T-shirts colored for their favorite state and local candidates. By far the most T-shirts are light blue with a simply stated, “Ready” on them — shorthand for “Ready for Hillary.” Attendees carry coolers of beer and lemonade and lay out blankets on the slightly damp ground. They sing along to Bruce Springsteen’s “Born in the U.S.A.,” as they wait for the show to begin.

As is his prerogative on his big day, Harkin is keeping his own schedule. He is retiring and this will be his final Steak Fry. The event is a far cry from the 52 people who attended the first one in 1972. The largest year yet, 2007, saw more than 10,000 people arrive to watch Clinton and then rivals Barack Obama and John Edwards. This year, Harkin and the Clintons arrive from a morning event in Des Moines with 450 Harkin donors 20 minutes after the speaking schedule was due to begin. But they take their time, eating lunch, as Harkin always does, before greeting the press and flipping the traditional steak for the assembled cameras. More than 200 reporters from around the world are present to witness potential history.

“Are you running?” reporters repeatedly shout at Hillary. She demurs. She even pretends not to notice when, the event having finally started down the hill, a speaker starts asking the crowd: “Are you fired up? Are you ready to go? Are you ready for Hillary? ARE YOU READY FOR HILLARY?” he screams as the crowd roars.

“Are you ready, Hillary?” a reporter yells. She ignores all this and chats away with Harkin and his wife Ruth. Her husband can be heard saying: “As long as I’m still married to her, I’m doing good.”

After Harkin introduces the Clintons as the “comeback couple,” Hillary takes the stage to chants of her name. “Wow!” she says. “Hello Iowa. I’m baaaaack!” — a line made famous by the movie Independence Day.

As the crowd cheers and whistles, Clinton says she has a lot to look forward to these days. “First, Bill and I are on constant grandchild watch … So don’t be surprised if we suddenly go sprinting off the stage.”

“And then of course there’s that other thing,” she adds, to a standing ovation. “Well it is true, I am thinking about it. But for today, that is not why I’m here,” she says.

The crowd expresses disapproval at this. “I’m here for the steak!” she says, which gets them cheering again. “For years I was more likely to be eating yak meat in Mongolia, and enjoying it, but thinking a lot of being back home.”

It’s all red meat for the “Ready for Hillary” crowd, of course. But others say her election to the presidency isn’t a sure thing. Carter Bell, 20, president of the University of Iowa Democrats, says she likes what she’s hearing from Clinton, but she’s keeping an open mind for the 2016 caucuses. “I like [Vice President] Joe Biden a lot too. And I’ve met [Maryland Governor] Martin O’Malley a bunch of times as he’s been out here a lot,” she says. “And I love Elizabeth Warren, she’s great, but she may not run.” Bell says Clinton will have to do some work to earn her support.

Sitting on a beach chair nearby, Judy Keller, 66, Des Moines consumer-affairs representative, is convinced. She says she regrets supporting John Edwards in 2008. “I didn’t know that she’d have a chance in ’08,” she says. “ I thought a man would win. But now it’s time. It’s time for a woman. I won’t make the same mistake twice.”

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