Before the 2014 World Series gets underway Tuesday night in Kansas City, FTW breaks down the odds and prop bets for the Fall Classic between the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants. All odds courtesy Bovada.
1. The Royals are slight, slight favorites to win the World Series.
(AP)
Advantage, Giants. As we described last week, every team that’s been favored in a 2014 playoff series eventually lost that series. That’s good news for SanFrancisco, as Bovada lists the Royals at -115 to win the Series, making them slight favorites over the Giants at -105.
2. Even so, San Francisco is the Game 1 favorite.
(AP)
For Game 1 though, those odds are reversed, making the Giants a slight favorite thanks to ace Madison Bumgarner. No love for Big Game James (Shields), though? In terms of the most likely specific outcome of Game 1, the odds favor a one-run win by the Royals (16/5) — of course, because that’s what Kansas City has done all postseason. The least likely outcome: Kansas City winning be three runs (8/1)
3. The MVP favorites are Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner.
Buster Posey is the favorite to win MVP. (USA TODAY Sports Images)
If the Royals are favored to win, why are two Giants players the MVP favorites? It’s probably because the Royals are perceived as having a deeper team less reliant on individual players. Given the team’s favoring of small ball and the lack of offensive superstar, a Royals MVP could come from anywhere. Not that a Giants MVP couldn’t (Edgar Renteria was MVP when SF won the 2010 Series), but San Francisco arguably has the two best players on the field in Posey (8/1) and Bumgarner (9/1). And it’s not as if they’re overwhelming favorites. Just behind them are a foursome of Royals players at 10/1: Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Gain and Mike Moustakas.
4. The least likely series outcome is a Giants sweep.
(Detroit Free Press)
The odds of a San Francisco sweep are 12/1 (compared to 9/1 for the Royals sweeping and capping a perfect postseason). The most likely outcomes are a seven-game win by either team (4/1). But in terms of how long the series will last, “6 games” is the winner, followed by seven, five and four, respectively.
5. Odds of a walk-off home run in the Series are 13/2.
(AP)
That’s just kooky talk. There have only been 15 walk-off homers in World Series history. With more than 615 games played, that’s a walk-off about 2.5% of the time. But the implied probability of a +650 bet puts the odds of a walk-off homer at 13.3%. This is like putting George Brett on the list of potential MVP winners and giving him a 15/1 shot to pull off the feat.
6. The over/under for Royals steals is six.
(AP)
That’s for the whole series, which isn’t bad considering Kansas City went over that total in the one-game wild-card playoff, swiping seven off the A’s.
