ESPN Football Power Index - 2014

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

Through:

2014 Football Power Index
RK	TEAM	W-L	PROJ W-L	WIN OUT%	CONF WIN%	REM SOS RK	FPI
1	Alabama, SEC	11-1	11.8 - 1.2	81.6	81.6	14	26.1
2	Oregon, Pac-12	11-1	11.7 - 1.3	74.0	74.0	10	25.8
3	Ole Miss, SEC	9-3	9.0 - 3.0	--	0.0	0	22.8
4	Georgia, SEC	9-3	9.0 - 3.0	--	0.0	0	22.7
5	Baylor, Big 12	10-1	10.7 - 1.3	70.0	70.0	13	22.0
6	Auburn, SEC	8-4	8.0 - 4.0	--	0.0	0	21.6
7	Oklahoma, Big 12	8-3	8.9 - 3.1	91.5	0.0	19	21.6
8	TCU, Big 12	10-1	11.0 - 1.0	97.2	29.2	25	21.6
9	Ohio State, Big Ten	11-1	11.6 - 1.4	58.8	58.8	8	21.4
10	Mississippi St, SEC	10-2	10.0 - 2.0	--	0.0	0	21.1
11	Florida State, ACC	12-0	12.7 - 0.3	65.4	65.4	11	20.7
12	Michigan State, Big Ten	10-2	10.0 - 2.0	--	0.0	0	20.4
13	USC, Pac-12	8-4	8.0 - 4.0	--	0.0	0	18.8
14	LSU, SEC	8-4	8.0 - 4.0	--	0.0	0	18.5
15	UCLA, Pac-12	9-3	9.0 - 3.0	--	0.0	0	18.2
16	Wisconsin, Big Ten	10-2	10.4 - 2.6	41.3	41.3	6	18.0
17	Stanford, Pac-12	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	17.2
18	Arkansas, SEC	6-6	6.0 - 6.0	--	0.0	0	17.1
19	Kansas State, Big 12	9-2	9.3 - 2.7	30.0	0.8	3	16.8
20	Arizona, Pac-12	10-2	10.3 - 2.7	26.0	26.0	2	15.8
RK	TEAM	W-L	PROJ W-L	WIN OUT%	CONF WIN%	REM SOS RK	FPI
21	Georgia Tech, ACC	10-2	10.3 - 2.7	34.6	34.6	7	14.9
22	Florida, SEC	6-5	6.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	14.8
23	Texas A&M, SEC	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	14.5
24	Clemson, ACC	9-3	9.0 - 3.0	--	0.0	0	13.7
25	Arizona State, Pac-12	9-3	9.0 - 3.0	--	0.0	0	13.5
26	Marshall, C-USA	11-1	11.8 - 1.2	78.7	78.7	18	13.5
27	Missouri, SEC	10-2	10.2 - 2.8	18.5	18.5	1	11.7
28	Miami (FL), ACC	6-6	6.0 - 6.0	--	0.0	0	11.6
29	West Virginia, Big 12	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	11.5
30	Nebraska, Big Ten	9-3	9.0 - 3.0	--	0.0	0	11.5
31	Notre Dame, FBS Indep.	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	--	0	11.4
32	Utah, Pac-12	8-4	8.0 - 4.0	--	0.0	0	11.2
33	Louisville, ACC	9-3	9.0 - 3.0	--	0.0	0	10.9
34	Washington, Pac-12	8-5	8.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	10.9
35	Tennessee, SEC	6-6	6.0 - 6.0	--	0.0	0	10.7
36	Boise State, MW	10-2	10.9 - 2.1	88.1	88.1	24	10.7
37	South Carolina, SEC	6-6	6.0 - 6.0	--	0.0	0	10.5
38	BYU, FBS Indep.	8-4	8.0 - 4.0	--	--	0	9.6
39	Memphis, American	9-3	9.0 - 3.0	--	100.0	0	9.5
40	Duke, ACC	9-3	9.0 - 3.0	--	0.0	0	8.0
RK	TEAM	W-L	PROJ W-L	WIN OUT%	CONF WIN%	REM SOS RK	FPI
41	Texas, Big 12	6-6	6.0 - 6.0	--	0.0	0	7.9
42	Pittsburgh, ACC	6-6	6.0 - 6.0	--	0.0	0	7.4
43	Minnesota, Big Ten	8-4	8.0 - 4.0	--	0.0	0	7.3
44	Virginia, ACC	5-7	5.0 - 7.0	--	0.0	0	6.7
45	Cincinnati, American	8-3	8.6 - 3.4	61.2	61.2	16	6.6
46	Virginia Tech, ACC	6-6	6.0 - 6.0	--	0.0	0	6.2
47	Michigan, Big Ten	5-7	5.0 - 7.0	--	0.0	0	5.6
48	Houston, American	7-4	7.4 - 4.6	38.9	0.0	15	5.3
49	Boston College, ACC	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	5.2
50	UCF, American	9-3	9.0 - 3.0	--	100.0	0	4.8
51	Maryland, Big Ten	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	4.8
52	California, Pac-12	5-7	5.0 - 7.0	--	0.0	0	4.7
53	Iowa, Big Ten	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	4.4
54	North Carolina, ACC	6-6	6.0 - 6.0	--	0.0	0	4.3
55	East Carolina, American	8-4	8.0 - 4.0	--	0.0	0	4.3
56	Colorado State, MW	10-2	10.0 - 2.0	--	0.0	0	4.1
57	Penn State, Big Ten	6-6	6.0 - 6.0	--	0.0	0	3.8
58	Louisiana Tech, C-USA	8-4	8.2 - 4.8	21.3	21.3	9	3.7
59	NC State, ACC	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	3.4
60	Kentucky, SEC	5-7	5.0 - 7.0	--	0.0	0	3.0
RK	TEAM	W-L	PROJ W-L	WIN OUT%	CONF WIN%	REM SOS RK	FPI
61	Oklahoma State, Big 12	5-6	5.1 - 6.9	8.5	0.0	4	2.6
62	Oregon State, Pac-12	5-7	5.0 - 7.0	--	0.0	0	2.0
63	Navy, FBS Indep.	6-5	6.8 - 5.2	84.7	--	27	1.9
64	Washington St, Pac-12	3-9	3.0 - 9.0	--	0.0	0	1.8
65	Nevada, MW	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	0.9
66	Utah State, MW	9-4	9.0 - 4.0	--	0.0	0	0.7
67	Texas Tech, Big 12	4-8	4.0 - 8.0	--	0.0	0	0.1
68	Northwestern, Big Ten	5-7	5.0 - 7.0	--	0.0	0	-0.1
69	Temple, American	5-6	5.7 - 6.3	68.4	0.0	23	-0.2
70	Rutgers, Big Ten	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	-0.4
71	Ga. Southern, Sun Belt	9-3	9.0 - 3.0	--	100.0	0	-0.6
72	N Illinois, MAC	10-2	10.7 - 2.3	66.0	66.0	22	-1.3
73	Colorado, Pac-12	2-10	2.0 - 10.0	--	0.0	0	-1.4
74	Toledo, MAC	8-4	8.0 - 4.0	--	0.0	0	-1.6
75	Syracuse, ACC	3-9	3.0 - 9.0	--	0.0	0	-2.0
76	Arkansas State, Sun Belt	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	-2.1
77	Air Force, MW	9-3	9.0 - 3.0	--	0.0	0	-2.5
78	W Kentucky, C-USA	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	-2.7
79	San Diego State, MW	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	-2.7
80	Indiana, Big Ten	4-8	4.0 - 8.0	--	0.0	0	-2.9
RK	TEAM	W-L	PROJ W-L	WIN OUT%	CONF WIN%	REM SOS RK	FPI
81	LA-Lafayette, Sun Belt	8-4	8.0 - 4.0	--	0.0	0	-3.2
82	W Michigan, MAC	8-4	8.0 - 4.0	--	0.0	0	-3.2
83	Illinois, Big Ten	6-6	6.0 - 6.0	--	0.0	0	-3.4
84	Rice, C-USA	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	-4.0
85	Middle Tennessee, C-USA	6-6	6.0 - 6.0	--	0.0	0	-4.6
86	Fresno State, MW	6-6	6.1 - 6.9	11.9	11.9	12	-4.9
87	UAB, C-USA	6-6	6.0 - 6.0	--	0.0	0	-5.1
88	Iowa State, Big 12	2-9	2.0 - 10.0	2.8	0.0	5	-5.5
89	Purdue, Big Ten	3-9	3.0 - 9.0	--	0.0	0	-5.5
90	Appalachian St, Sun Belt	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	-6.5
91	Texas State, Sun Belt	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	-6.8
92	Cent Michigan, MAC	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	-7.6
93	Bowling Green, MAC	7-5	7.3 - 5.7	34.0	34.0	20	-7.6
94	Kansas, Big 12	3-9	3.0 - 9.0	--	0.0	0	-7.9
95	South Alabama, Sun Belt	6-6	6.0 - 6.0	--	0.0	0	-8.2
96	UTEP, C-USA	7-5	7.0 - 5.0	--	0.0	0	-8.4
97	Vanderbilt, SEC	3-9	3.0 - 9.0	--	0.0	0	-8.5
98	Old Dominion, C-USA	6-6	6.0 - 6.0	--	0.0	0	-9.3
99	Ball State, MAC	5-7	5.0 - 7.0	--	0.0	0	-9.6
100	South Florida, American	4-8	4.0 - 8.0	--	0.0	0	-9.8
RK	TEAM	W-L	PROJ W-L	WIN OUT%	CONF WIN%	REM SOS RK	FPI
101	UTSA, C-USA	4-8	4.0 - 8.0	--	0.0	0	-10.0
102	Hawaii, MW	4-9	4.0 - 9.0	--	0.0	0	-10.1
103	Wake Forest, ACC	3-9	3.0 - 9.0	--	0.0	0	-10.3
104	UL Monroe, Sun Belt	4-8	4.0 - 8.0	--	0.0	0	-10.4
105	FIU, C-USA	4-8	4.0 - 8.0	--	0.0	0	-10.5
106	Akron, MAC	5-7	5.0 - 7.0	--	0.0	0	-10.7
107	Tulane, American	3-8	3.3 - 8.7	31.6	0.0	21	-10.9
108	Buffalo, MAC	5-6	5.0 - 6.0	--	0.0	0	-11.3
109	San Jose State, MW	3-9	3.0 - 9.0	--	0.0	0	-11.8
110	Florida Atl, C-USA	3-9	3.0 - 9.0	--	0.0	0	-11.9
111	North Texas, C-USA	4-8	4.0 - 8.0	--	0.0	0	-11.9
112	New Mexico, MW	4-8	4.0 - 8.0	--	0.0	0	-12.2
113	Ohio, MAC	6-6	6.0 - 6.0	--	0.0	0	-12.2
114	Connecticut, American	2-9	2.8 - 9.2	79.1	0.0	28	-12.5
115	Tulsa, American	2-10	2.0 - 10.0	--	0.0	0	-12.6
116	Wyoming, MW	4-8	4.0 - 8.0	--	0.0	0	-12.8
117	Army, FBS Indep.	4-7	4.2 - 7.8	15.3	--	17	-14.6
118	Massachusetts, MAC	3-9	3.0 - 9.0	--	0.0	0	-15.1
119	Kent State, MAC	2-9	2.0 - 9.0	--	0.0	0	-15.4
120	Southern Miss, C-USA	3-9	3.0 - 9.0	--	0.0	0	-15.5
RK	TEAM	W-L	PROJ W-L	WIN OUT%	CONF WIN%	REM SOS RK	FPI
121	Miami (OH), MAC	2-10	2.0 - 10.0	--	0.0	0	-16.7
122	UNLV, MW	2-11	2.0 - 11.0	--	0.0	0	-17.0
123	Troy, Sun Belt	3-9	3.0 - 9.0	--	0.0	0	-19.9
124	Idaho, Sun Belt	1-10	1.0 - 10.0	--	0.0	0	-19.9
125	SMU, American	0-11	0.2 - 11.8	20.9	0.0	26	-22.1
126	New Mexico St, Sun Belt	2-10	2.0 - 10.0	--	0.0	0	-22.9
127	Georgia State, Sun Belt	1-11	1.0 - 11.0	--	0.0	0	-23.5
128	E Michigan, MAC	2-10	2.0 - 10.0	--	0.0	0	-25.2

Glossary

PROJ W-L: Projected overall W-L, accounting for results to date and FPI-based projections for remaining scheduled games (and potential conference championship games). May not sum to a whole number because of differing number of games played in each simulation.
WIN OUT %: Percent of season simulations in which team won all remaining scheduled games as well as conference championship game (if applicable).
CONF WIN%: Percent of season simulations in which team won its conference, incorporating chance of getting to and winning conference championship game (if applicable). Accounts for shared conference titles in conferences that allow them.
REM SOS RK: Rank among all FBS teams of remaining schedule strength, from perspective of an average FBS team.
FPI: Football Power Index that measures team's true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field.