College football money-line picks - Tar Heels present value opportunity on the road

UNC offense thriving behind Williams

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AccuScore’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the football season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply, it’s a recommended play. 

Here’s a pick for a potential upset for this week’s NCAA Football card:

North Carolina Tar Heels (3-4) @ Virginia Cavaliers (4-3)

North Carolina visits Virginia this weekend for a matchup that AccuScore projects to be much more competitive than initial Vegas odds would suggest. North Carolina is listed as a +235 underdog, indicating just under a 30 percent chance of winning. With Virginia depending so heavily this season on its defense to force turnovers, North Carolina has a chance to pull off a road upset if they can just take care of the ball.

AccuScore data leans much more heavily towards the road team than does Vegas. As opposed to the 29.8 percent chance Vegas odds give North Carolina, AccuScore simulations indicate a 44 percent chance of winning. AccuScore would have listed the Tar Heels as slight +125 underdogs. North Carolina has nearly a 57 percent chance of covering a +7 spread.

Neither Vegas nor AccuScore project North Carolina to win. The difference between a 30 percent chance and 44, however, is appealing. Coming off a big win against Georgia Tech, AccuScore data projects North Carolina having a good chance of pulling the upset, making the +235 very attractive.

The average score after 10,000-plus simulations is 37-34. As is always the case in close games, turnovers become an extra crucial variable in the simulations. North Carolina’s winning probability goes up to 55 percent when it commits fewer turnovers than Virginia, which happens in 44 percent of simulated games. Virginia has a higher probability to commit a second turnover than does North Carolina.

North Carolina’s potential to upset rests on the shoulders of quarterback Marquise WIlliams. After Williams spent the first month of the season splitting QB duties with Mitch Trubisky, he has taken over the starting spot in the last two games and has racked up 898 yards of total offense in those. Not coincidently, the offense has been on a roll. In the 48-43 win against Georgia Tech last week, he finished with 390 yards, four touchdowns, and 38 completions, a UNC record. 

AccuScore projects Williams to put up 260 yards, two TDs, and finish with a passer rating of 134.8. Virginia quarterback Matt Johns has a slightly higher probability to throw an INT than does Williams. If Williams has a performance where he outdoes the previously stated simulated averages and has at least a 2:1 TD:INT ratio -- which there’s a 39 percent chance of -- North Carolina’s winning probability goes up to 62 percent.

Supporting Trend: North Carolina is 4-1 straight up (SU) in its last five games against Virginia.

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