Gubernatorial debate set as Cuomo's wide margin slips to 21 points

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It's debate day in Buffalo as the candidates for governor of New York state prepare to square off tonight in the only scheduled televised face-to-face meeting.

According to a Siena Research Institute poll released Wednesday morning, it's incumbent Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, still well ahead of his top challenger, Rob Astorino, the Republican candidate.

The survey of voters statewide does indicate the margin of 21 points between Cuomo and Astorino has narrowed from 29 points a month ago.

"Cuomo is nine points shy of the 63 percent of the vote he got four years ago. Unfortunately for Astorino, however, he's 21 points away from equaling the 54 percent current support Cuomo has among likely voters. In fact, Astorino's 33 percent support matches what the Republican gubernatorial candidate got in 2010. The difference is (Green Party) Howie Hawkins' nine percent support," said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. "If Hawkins does that well on Election Day — something third party candidates often don't do — then it will almost certainly make this year's race closer than four years ago and keep Cuomo well below his total vote from 2010."

And, SRI notes Cuomo's favorability among New Yorkers has continued to slip.

"Astorino has narrowed the gap, however, with less than two weeks until election day, about three-quarters of Republicans and Astorino voters think that Cuomo will win. It appears that Cuomo simply needs to run out the clock," said Greenberg.

The gubernatorial debate is scheduled for 8 p.m. tonight at the WNED studios in Buffalo and will be televised statewide. Cuomo, Astorino, Hawkins and Libertarian candidate Michael McDermott will face questions from a media panel.

The SRI poll was conducted Oct. 16 through 20 with 748 likely voters. It also showed that in two other races for statewide office, Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, a Democrat, has a 20-point lead over John Cahill. And another incumbent Democrat, Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, has a 27-point lead over Bob Antonacci.