The election that analysts expected over the summer is over, and Republicans won.
Now they have to win battles they didn’t expect they had to fight.
The Republicans look well positioned to flip the Democratic states they figured they would need. They’re clear favorites in Louisiana, Arkansas and Alaska; slight favorites in Iowa and Colorado; and slight underdogs in North Carolina and New Hampshire.
Picking up six Democratic states and holding Kentucky was thought to be the whole ballgame for the Republicans. If it still were, the Republicans would have an 87 percent chance of winning the Senate.
The Democrats are still in the game because they’ve brought Kansas and Georgia into play. The polls in Georgia and Kansas, somewhat astonishingly, are closer than the ones in Iowa, Colorado, Louisiana and Arkansas.
It is not much of an exaggeration to say that Democratic chances depend on winning Kansas or Georgia, or another red state, South Dakota, which was largely taken for granted over the summer but where a Democratic and an independent candidate have a shot at an upset.
Winning a red state will be a big challenge for Democrats. Michelle Nunn of Georgia is faring well in the polls, but she needs 50 percent of the vote to avoid a January runoff, when turnout and her prospects would be more uncertain. The independent candidate in Kansas, Greg Orman, has seen his lead dwindle in recent weeks.
The problem for Democrats is that, barring other upsets, winning one red state — Kansas, Georgia or South Dakota — won’t be enough. If the Democrats win just one of these states, the G.O.P.'s odds of retaking the Senate remain at 70 percent. The Democrats would still need to sweep Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina. That’s a tough road to victory.
