Polling: What To Believe & What To Ignore

The races for the U.S. Senate and Governor in Colorado are making headlines on a weekly basis at this point of the game.

The big story this week was the disparate results of various polls on the races. Quinnipiac University has the challengers up by 8-10 points and USA Today shows the incumbents up by 2-4 points. Several other national and local polls are everywhere in between.

Mark Udall, left, and Cory Gardner, right (credit: CBS)

So what are we to believe? Who’s in the lead? Who’s going to win?

Looking at polls right now is like looking at a football halftime score. Yes, it can give you an idea of the status of the fight, but it cannot be trusted to foresee the final result.

The challengers should not trust the new numbers and get cocky and the incumbents should not breathe a big sigh of relief when they see competing polls.

RELATED: Reading Between The Lines In The Gardner-Udall Poll

What we can believe is that these polls show that this is a typically tight election in a purple state. The polls also show that while we as an electorate have had to deal with a barrage of negative ads since this spring, that same barrage has not separated one candidate from his opponent.

What we can also believe is that these polls will invigorate both sides of each race. Whatever funds are available will come to Colorado. This is a winnable race for both sides and national allies and opponents know it.

What we should ignore is the idea that any little blip in any particular poll, even by more than a handful of points, signifies a major shift statewide.

Bob Beauprez, left, and John Hickenlooper, right (credit: CBS)

Remember, every poll is conducted differently. Some have various questions with ranges, some center on other topics and all use a wide range of sample pools.

I’m not calling into question the methodology of the organizations polling voters. I’m simply reminding all of us
that polling is not an exact science and there exists many different strategies to seek the results.

Whether we like it or not, Colorado is a focal point for the 2014 election. Millions of dollars have been and will continue to be spent here. As much as both sides would prefer it, the races will not be decided in September.

Think of it this way, one month ago was mid-August. Do you recall your opinions of the races and issues back then? Did you come across a particular event or story that sealed your vote? Likely you did not.

Well, your ballot will be coming in the mail to you in a little less than a month. I do not think that your opinions of this month will be any clearer to you then than your opinions of last month are to you now.

For that very reason, plus many more, all of the polls we see, regardless of who has what lead, must be taken with a three and a half week sized grain of salt.

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About The Blogger

- Dominic Dezzutti, producer of the Colorado Decides debate series, a co-production of CBS4 and Colorado Public Television, looks at the local and national political scene in his CBSDenver.com blog. Read new entries here usually every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Dezzutti writes about federal, state and local matters and how our elected leaders are handling the issues important to Colorado. Dezzutti is also the host and producer of the Emmy award winning Colorado Inside Out on Colorado Public Television.