Winning elections in Dallas County hinges on the ability of political operatives to compel voters to support their party’s ticket.
With just one action, residents can select a slate based solely on party affiliation, which saves them the task of maneuvering through large ballots.
That means some races don’t even get a look from voters. In places like Dallas County, crossover appeal is overrated.
With straight-ticket voting so critical, the Nov. 4 countywide elections will be determined by which party has the strongest, most reliable base. That means it’s a battle between black voters and their white, conservative counterparts.
It’s part of a larger contest being played out across the country. Control of the U.S. Senate may be determined by the Democratic Party’s ability to rally black voters during a nonpresidential election.
In Dallas County, African-Americans, based heavily in southern Dallas, have won that battle since 2004.
In November, candidates like Dallas County District Attorney Craig Watkins will look to black voters to win the day for them again.
That won’t be easy.
Nationwide, Republicans have the more animated base for the midterm elections. Motivated by a growing dissatisfaction with the federal government and President Barack Obama, they won’t need much prompting to vote. And just like in 2010, they are likely to vote the straight ticket where applicable.
In counties like Tarrant, Collin and Denton, Republicans are almost certain to win every countywide race — and they will also be favored for in-district fights, including the highly competitive Senate District 10 race against tea party conservative Konni Burton and Democrat Libby Willis. That Tarrant County seat is now held by Democrat Wendy Davis, who is running for governor against Attorney General Greg Abbott.
Davis won two Senate contests in Tarrant County during presidential elections, when Democrats flock to the polls in higher number. And even in those years, she melded together some crossover votes with a strong turnout from black precincts.
Dallas County has become one of the bluest areas in the state. In 2008 and 2012, Democrats didn’t have to work as hard to beat Republicans because their base turnout was more substantial.
But in the midterm election of 2010, every Democrat on the ballot had very close races against Republican rivals. Watkins beat Republican Danny Clancy by 1 percentage point.
So why did Democrats win during a Republican wave year?
Black voters put them over the top.
The DeSoto-based district that Rep. Helen Giddings represents in the Texas House, a treasure trove of reliable voters, churned out a high percentage of the Democratic Party total. But there were also black voters all over the county, even in areas dominated by Republicans.
Candidates like Watkins hope these voters will return to the polls and offset campaign disadvantages. Watkins trails Republican Susan Hawk by more than 5-1 in fundraising. Without straight-ticket voting, his re-election would be even more questionable. As it now stands, Hawk has a tremendous opportunity to wrest the DA’s office away from him.
But Hawk has to hope that the Republican base turns out in better numbers than in 2010, or that she can peel away Democratic Party support from Watkins.
Hawk’s campaign aides have identified areas in the county where more Republican votes can be had. And the anti-Watkins mood is so pronounced with the GOP base that beating the incumbent could offer a strong reason for those voters to show up at the polls.
Hawk needs staunch conservatives and tea party activists to show the enthusiasm they had in the March primary.
While there’s a feeling that Hawk is getting support from some Democrats, beating Watkins, a two-term incumbent, requires a united GOP front.
Follow Gromer Jeffers Jr. on Twitter at @gromerjeffers.
NOTES: Elections chief could have been among those turned away at polls
Can you imagine Dallas County Elections Administrator Toni Pippins-Poole not being allowed to vote?
It could have happened.
Pippins-Poole has a Texas driver’s license that spells her name “Toni Pippins Poole.” Notice the absence of a hyphen.
Under the Texas voter ID law, allowed to remain in effect for this election by the U.S. Supreme Court, Pippins-Poole would not have been allowed to vote because her name would not match how it is spelled on her voter registration document.
I would love to see the face of the election official telling her that she couldn’t vote.
But Pippins-Poole took the steps to make sure her name matched on all the appropriate identification needed to vote.
