2014 Midterm Elections Forecast
Election Lab
Election
Lab
The Monkey Cage's political scientists
forecast the House and Senate races.
forecast the House and Senate races.
Republicans
are favored to control the Senate.
93% chance as of today.
Republicans
are favored to control the House.
Greater than 99% chance as of today.
Senate
House
Majority
+
7 seats
45 Republicans
52 Republicans
Majority
+
8 seats
234 Republicans
242 Republicans
what's changing?
Show
senate
house
map
cartogram
table
Find a race by state:
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| Chance of winning: | |
| Qualification score*: | |
| Funds raised**: | |
| Share of vote, last election:*** |
| Chance of winning: | |
| Qualification score*: | |
| Funds raised**: | |
| Share of vote, last election:*** |
*Qualification scores: 0: No previous elective office experience; 1: Local office or state legislature; 2: Statewide office (non-governor), including former U.S. senator; 3: U.S. House or large-city mayor; 4: Governor; 5: Incumbent elected senator (not appointed)
Democrats
Republicans
Democrats
Republicans
(51 needed for majority)
Likely Democratic/Republican
Leaning Democratic/Republican
Mass.
R.I.
Conn.
N.J.
Del.
Md.
Special elections
Okla.
S.C.
Hawaii
About this project
Like most forecasting models, Election Lab uses the past to predict the future. To predict House and Senate elections in 2014, we draw on the elections from 1980-2012. We first look at how well key factors were related to outcomes in those past elections. Then, we gather information about those same factors for 2014. Assuming that these factors will be related to election outcomes in 2014 in the same way they were from 1980 to 2012, we can make a prediction about who will win each race. Read more about our methodology.