Even riding the wings of a six-game win streak, the Cowboys must focus on Washington. Then Arizona. Then, yes, even Jacksonville.
There is no place for wandering minds in the middle of an athletic quest. But that doesn’t keep me from thinking big picture and writing about what you’re thinking about, which, of course, is this:
Can the 2014 Cowboys get to the Super Bowl?
Luckily, I have an opinion, and while it’s true I picked this team to go 5-11, do not be distracted by that. Focus on the fact I am getting upwards of 63 percent of all picks correct (and that’s against the point spread, my friends, as the Friday paper will attest), and realize you have come to the right place.
For those who remain unconvinced, I have brought a suitcase filled with football science along with me today as I examine what I perceive to be the eight teams with a chance to represent the NFC in Glendale, Ariz., on Feb. 1.
Let’s start with my picks. I have the Cowboys ranked third behind Green Bay and San Francisco. The Cowboys’ offensive balance is stunning, their line wears down the best defenses, and I don’t see them suffering a major drop-off at any time.
But I might be the last one who still believes the 49ers will recover some players on defense and find their way back to the NFC championship. Colin Kaepernick and the offense started even slower last year. We’ll see.
Green Bay is the one recent Super Bowl winner that I felt just had to win at least one or two more with that core of players. And Aaron Rodgers, after advising everyone to calm down, is having his finest season yet — 18 touchdowns, one interception. I’m not wild about Eddie Lacy’s inability to run this season, but his numbers the last three games are much better than the first four.
Can Dallas battle its way into the NFC title game (its first in 19 years) ahead of either the 49ers or Packers? Of course. The NFL’s only dominant team in my mind plays in Denver.
But enough about me, let’s check the science. Or, to be specific, a ranking of teams based on current won-loss record, point differential and offensive and defensive rankings.
Using these measuring sticks, let’s look at the teams in reverse order.
8. New Orleans: First of all, I went with the Saints over Carolina, and we can argue the merits of that choice at another time. New Orleans has six home games remaining and a better chance to right the ship, although no team in the NFC South has smooth sailing in its sights.
The Saints come in last based on worst record among this group and worst point differential (minus-10). We have not seen the last of Sean Payton getting testy in news conferences.
7. Seattle: Seriously, the Super Bowl champs are in trouble. Their record is no good, the loss to the Cowboys was no aberration and the trade of Percy Harvin may linger over this roster for weeks. Teams determined to reach Super Bowls rarely trade starters for draft picks in October.
6. Arizona: My Cardinals (OK, that was mostly a grade-school affliction) don’t get much love despite an exemplary 5-1 record that leads the West. Their point differential is average, but they are dead last in the final category with a 28th-ranked offense and 18th-ranked defense. Where’s the strength of this team that will sustain it for 16 games? And even if healthy, can you really buy into Carson Palmer?
5. Detroit: The Lions are 5-2, but they’re the opposite of what we think they are — really good on defense and not terribly productive on offense (24th). They might be a wild card, but they’re going nowhere. They are, after all, the Lions.
4. San Francisco: Science isn’t overly impressed with the 49ers’ point differential of minus-7. When you think of it, since halftime of the opener in Dallas, they must be minus-32. The Cowboys’ chances just went up a notch in my mind.
3. Green Bay: The Packers are penalized where it doesn't really matter. Their 25th-ranked offense is not a true reflection of what this team can do. Their No. 2 point differential paints a more accurate picture of this potential powerhouse. You still have to favor a quarterback who owns a Super Bowl ring.
2. Philadelphia: The Eagles are 5-1 and own the best point differential per game, but a suspect defense (24th) keeps them out of the top spot. With a healthy offensive line, they may be the class of the NFC East. We won’t begin to find out until Thanksgiving whether they can stop the Cowboys, the Cowboys can stop the Eagles or none of the above.
1. Dallas: Well, how about that? With the league’s best record, the third-best point differential and the second-best total offense-defense score, the numbers favor Dallas across the board. Raise your hand if you saw this coming after Week 1.
Now, if they can only put these Cowboy-loving football scientists into the seats at AT&T Stadium ...
Who's going to the Super Bowl?
A look at where the top NFC contenders rank in important categories, including point differential and total offense/defense:
Rk., Team | W-L (rk.) | Pt.D. (rk.) | Total O/D (rk.) | Overall |
1. Dallas | 6-1 (1) | +49 (3) | 3-15 18 (2) | (6) |
2. Philadelphia | 5-1 (3) | +51 (1) | 9-24 33 (6) | (10) |
3. Green Bay | 5-2 (4) | +52 (2) | 25-19 44 (7) | (13) |
4. San Francisco | 4-3 (6) | -7 (7) | 14-2 16 (1) | (14) |
5. Detroit | 5-2 (5) | +35 (4) | 24-1 25 (5) | (14) |
6. Arizona | 5-1 (2) | +21 (5) | 28-18 46 (8) | (15) |
7. Seattle | 3-3 (7) | +18 (6) | 15-8 23 (3) | (16) |
8. New Orleans | 2-4 (8) | -10 (8) | 2-21 23 (4) | (20) |
Notes: Two ties in W-L record were broken in favor of team with more home games remaining. In point differential, Philadelphia has played one fewer game than Green Bay so has a higher differential per game. San Francisco-Detroit tie overall was broken because 49ers are better in more important category (total offense-defense rather than point differential). Also because the Lions are the Lions.
On Twitter: @TimCowlishaw
