NFL Picks: Against The Spread – Week 8

By Ken Boehlke

Chargers at Broncos

Spread – DEN -7.5
Moneyline –  SD +300 DEN -360
Total – 51.5

Side: The chase for 509 is now over so Peyton Manning and the Broncos can go back to boring old regular season games. They draw a difficult matchup on the short week at home against San Diego. The Chargers have a history of giant killing and have laid out a blueprint on how to win games in which they are heavy underdogs. San Diego controls the ball when they have it, and they stuff the run when they don’t. Sprinkle in a little Corey Liuget getting after the QB and they become a very live underdog. May not go as far as to say the Chargers will win outright (though they might) but they should keep the game within one score. Pick: Chargers +7.5

Total: As mentioned above, the Chargers’ plan in games like this is to shorten the game by controlling the ball on offense. They’ll attempt the same plan and should be able to decrease the number of possessions from a normal Broncos game. This will be the first game all season in which San Diego plays in a game in which the total will be higher than 46, and only the second game in the 50’s for the Broncos. Kansas City proved that keeping the ball away from Phillip Rivers works, so expect both teams to try and play keep away. It’ll kill a lot of clock and the game will never approach the total. Pick: Under 51.5

Lions at Falcons (at Wembley Stadium in London)

Spread – DET -4
Moneyline –  DET -190 ATL +170
Total – 46.5

Side: The season’s second London game is once again not exactly displaying the best games the NFL can offer to our friends across the pond. When the schedule was released it looked like it could be a dandy, but the Falcons have been miserable and losing a home game is not going to help their season. Detroit has looked excellent defensively, and even without Calvin Johnson they’ve been able to scratch out enough offense to keep winning games. If this game is in Atlanta, which it should be, the Falcons would be the right side, but it’s in London, so the Lions shouldn’t have any trouble pounding the soft Falcons into submission. Pick: Lions -4

Total: The total will be heavily dependent on Calvin Johnson’s involvement in the contest. If Johnson plays, the Falcons will have no answer for him and the game could turn into a shootout quickly. But if he’s out it’s more likely the Lions rely on their ground game against the poor Falcons front. Atlanta will want to throw the ball but will likely have a tough time protecting Matt Ryan so their offense won’t do too much. This post has to go up on a Wednesday so I’ll just do this… Pick: (If Calvin Plays) Over 46.5 / (If Calvin Doesn’t Play) Under 46.5

Vikings at Buccaneers

Spread – TB -3
Moneyline –  MIN +130 TB -150
Total – 42

Side: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored, in an NFL game. The same Buccaneers that allowed 38 unanswered points at home in the first half to the Baltimore Ravens. Yet, it actually kind of makes sense because the Vikings might just be more of a mess than Tampa Bay. Plus the Buccaneers are coming off a bye and in theory Lovie Smith (who we’re told is a good coach) will have his guys well prepared for Minnesota. Neither team should be able to run so it’ll come down to the epic showdown of Teddy Bridgewater and Mike Glennon. Yuck, this is a gross game. Pick: Buccaneers -3

Total: The Buccaneers have had a historically poor last four games defensively and have consistently made quarterbacks look like Hall of Famers. However, it’s okay to think that not even a brutal defense will be enough to kickstart the Vikings offense. Both teams will pin their ears back and come after the quarterback as both have struggled against pressure. This will also make running the ball very difficult for each team. If both teams run a screen play every other play there’s a chance the offenses move the ball, otherwise, there will be a lot of punting. Expect the latter. Pick: Under 42

Bears at Patriots

Spread – NE -6
Moneyline –  CHI +230 NE -270
Total – 50

Side: Yelling, screaming, finger pointing, and whining, this was the scene in the Chicago locker room after their embarrassing home loss to the Dolphins. Brandon Marshall seemed to call out anything that moved and one Chicago Bear even called out the fans for “booing too much” when the team was on offense. In two words, a mess, but a trip to New England may be just what the doctor ordered for the Bears. They will not be expected to win, they will be as angry as any team in Week 8. Jay Cutler should have time to throw which will allow the mismatches on the edges to materialize. Passion often pushes teams to win games they maybe shouldn’t, just look at the Patriots a few weeks ago against the Bengals. Pick: Bears +6 (Small portion on Chicago ML +230) 

Total: If the Bears are indeed going to win the game it’s going to have to be because the defense steps it up against Tom Brady. First off they will have to completely take the Pats running game out, which can be done. Then they’ll have to make sure they do not get beat over the top, something that has plagued Chicago before. Brady still doesn’t have the best relationship with his receivers and a jacked up defense could throw the Patriots’ passing attack off. Chicago will score, but they shouldn’t get to 30, so there’s a good chance this one stays under. Pick: Under 50

Rams at Chiefs

Spread – KC -6.5
Moneyline –  STL +260 KC -320
Total – 43.5

Side: The battle of Missouri pits two of the happiest teams over their performances in Week 7. The Rams special-teamed their way to a miraculous victory over the Seahawks while the Chiefs played keep-away from San Diego and essentially stole a division game on the road. Both of these teams are tough to figure out as their offenses tend to come and go without notice. St. Louis has won each of the last two match ups and they should be able to defend enough to keep this one close. Kansas City will likely win the game, but without an elite offense in the game, 6.5 is simply too much. Pick: Rams +6.5

Total: Just because it’s going to be a close game doesn’t mean the game will stay under the total. Expect both run games to be able to move the ball and allow for their respective underrated quarterbacks to take their shots. The Rams were expected to have one of the better defenses in the league, but they simply haven’t shown it and aside from last week’s surprising effort they can’t get anybody into the backfield. Kansas City’s defense hasn’t been much better as they were continuously torched by the San Diego offense during the very short periods the Chargers had the ball. Pick: Over 43.5

Seahawks at Panthers

Spread – SEA -4.5
Moneyline –  SEA -230 CAR +195
Total – 44.5

Side: If you had known Russell Wilson would put in a 300 yards passing, 100 yards rushing, and three total TD’s, would you have predicted the Seahawks to lose the game? Me neither, but that’s exactly what happened. It took a ridiculously gutsy call from Jeff Fisher and an incredible punt return to down the Seahawks who are now feeling a bit of pressure to get a victory. They’ll do even more on offense this weekend, and the defense will straighten out some of their problems, and they play a Panthers team that’s not good. Seattle will roll and everyone will remember how great they are again. Pick: Seahawks -4.5

Total: The game could get ugly early as the Seahawks shouldn’t face much resistance against the now maligned Carolina defense. Once Seattle gets up, the Panthers will have no problem abandoning the traditional run game and simply ask Cam Newton to do it all. Carolina is riding a five game over streak and it should continue easily here. Usually when a team is playing every game over the total the number in their games goes up, this one is down five from Carolina’s Week 7 matchup. Pick: Over 44.5

Bills at Jets

Spread – NYJ -3
Moneyline –  BUF +140 NYJ -160
Total – 40.5

Side: Imagine how much better the Jets would feel had they been able to nail that long field goal and shock New England on Thursday Night. Now imagine how much worse the Bills would feel if not for Sammy Watkins’ game winning TD in the front corner of the end zone against the Vikings. Well, both happened and now the spread in the game is reflecting those outcomes. If the Jets had indeed beaten the Patriots, and the Bills lost to the Vikings, there’s no way this game would be just a three point spread, indicating the teams are even aside from home field advantage. Pick: Jets -3

Total: Both teams boast excellent defenses and offenses that go stagnant for halves at a time. The total reflects this in a big way as it’s the lowest total of the week. However, neither team is very good against the pass while both are solid against the run. This means each team will expect to have a tough time on the ground and will game plan to throw the ball. The Jets are allowing more than 26 points a week and the Bills are above 20 themselves. Should be a lot of clock stoppages and a high probability of a defensive score. Pick: Over 40.5

Dolphins at Jaguars

Spread – MIA -6
Moneyline –  MIA -270 JAX +230
Total – 43

Side: For the first time all season, and the first time in September or October for more than two years, the Jacksonville Jaguars won a football game. Amazingly they did it in convincing fashion against a team many were just starting to believe in. They have the exact same chance once again here. The Dolphins are an average team that comes up big from time to time, but when they aren’t at their best, they can be beaten by just about anyone. Blake Bortles is getting more comfortable and it’s possible the Denard Robinson experience was not a one hit wonder. Pick: Jaguars +6

Total: The Jaguars defense has suddenly come to life and appear that they might just reach the potential many believed they could at the beginning of the year. The Dolphins D has been pretty good as of late as well holding their last two opponents on the road to just 14 points a piece. It should be a hard fought game in which the trenches will be owned by the defense on both sides. Each team has their share of explosive playmakers but there’s not a single player who can be counted on to score every week. Pick: Under 43

Texans at Titans

Spread – HOU -1
Moneyline –  HOU -120 TEN +100
Total – 43.5

Side: Had it not been for the worst three minute stretch in the history of Monday Night Football the Texans would have won a lot of people (including me) a lot of money. However, they shot themselves in the foot over and over again in Pittsburgh and lost a game they should have easily won. Meanwhile the Texans had their game won and then forgot to guard against a deep ball, the only thing Colt McCoy is any good at throwing. Houston will bounce back in a big way and put in a well-rounded effort that includes stellar defense and an excellent rushing attack. Pick: Texans -1

Total: Divisional games are usually not high scoring affairs, but with both teams ranked in the bottom third in total defense this one has a chance to be. DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson should find all sorts of space in the Titans secondary as the Titans will be forced to send extra help into the box to slow down Arian Foster. Then, once the Titans fall behind, they’ll resort to chucking the ball up to their three talented receivers who will continue harassing a Texans secondary that is porous at best. Pick: Over 43.5

Ravens at Bengals

Spread – CIN -1.5
Moneyline –  BAL +105 CIN -125
Total – 46

Side: What to make of the Bengals? They were originally supposed to be a team competing for the AFC Championship crown, but since the bye week are looking like they might even need help just to make the postseason. The Ravens on the other hand were expected to be pedestrian but have taken it to consecutive NFC South teams and are flying high. A.J. Green’s return to the lineup will change things for Cincinnati. He’s dominated the Ravens in the past and his presence will allow the Bengals run game more space near the line of scrimmage. There still has to be some worry about the Bengals defense, but the offense should keep the Ravens off the field long enough for them to hang on. Pick: Bengals -1.5

Total: In the past eight years, only one time has the second matchup between these AFC North rivals eclipsed a total of 40 points. The defenses usually win out in the rematch and the same is certainly to be expected here. Even though the Bengals defense has been miserable over the past few weeks and the Ravens offense has been on fire, the familiarity factor should benefit the defenses in a big way. The consistency of the head coaches will lead this one to be a grind it out type game in which the last field goal will win the game. Pick: Under 46

Eagles at Cardinals

Spread – ARI -2.5
Moneyline –  PHI +125 ARI -145
Total – 48

Side: Coming off the bye week the Eagles historically are very good, however most attribute that success to Andy Reid rather than the Philadelphia franchise. This will be an excellent test of that theory. Last season the Cardinals and Eagles met off Philly’s bye as well. The Eagles won the game at home but did not cover the spread. Turnovers will be the ultimate determining factor in this game just as they were a year ago. Philadelphia’s defense has been incredibly opportunistic and have help up an Eagle offense that much more was expected of. The game really is a toss up, therefore, we’ll go take the points. Pick: Eagles +2.5

Total: It’s difficult to decipher how this game will play out. Each team likes to pass but they are both better on the ground. Therefore the best way we can break it down is to use trends and/or averages. Since the trends don’t say much we’ll rely on averages. The most telling number is points scored. The Eagles score more than 30 per game and the Cardinals average 23. Defensively the numbers are just the opposite. Arizona allows a measly 20 per while the Eagles give up 22. 53 for the offenses, 44 for the defenses. That averages out to 48.5. We may not win, but you can’t say I didn’t show my work. Pick: Over 48

Colts at Steelers

Spread – IND -3
Moneyline –  IND -150 PIT +130
Total – 48.5

Side: With Seahawks dropping two-straight, the second best team in football may just be the Indianapolis Colts. They’ll take on a Steelers team that scored 24 points in a three minute span and managed just six points in the other 57 minutes. The Colts will not have the same lapse the Texans did and the Steelers defense is in for a much tougher task against Andrew Luck than they did Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Colts are not only the better team, they are the much better team. They’ll throw all over the Pittsburgh secondary and make everyone realize how poor this version of the Steelers really are. Pick: Colts -3

Total: This may be the easiest total to handicap of the week. The Colts have turned themselves into a well oiled offensive machine and they are primed to expose an old beat up Pittsburgh defense. Indy should have no trouble scoring which will force the Steelers to throw the football a lot more than they would like. As proven last week, Le’Veon Bell may be even more dangerous as a pass catcher than a runner and Antonio Brown is just a freak of nature. This game could get to 70. Pick: Over 48.5

Raiders at Browns

Spread – CLE -6.5
Moneyline –  OAK +270 CLE -330
Total – 43.5

Side: For the third straight week the Browns will be favored. They are 1-1-1 in those three games and looked really bad in the latest one against Jacksonville. Cleveland was presented with a golden opportunity to take control of their playoff fate by starting the season 3-2 and facing a three game stretch of Jacksonville, Oakland, and Tampa Bay. However, they looked lost on both sides of the ball in Week 7 and cannot be trusted in Week 8. Oakland has been getting better offensively as David Carr settles in. The Cleveland secondary will make things tough on James Jones and Andre Holmes, but the Raiders will stay close enough to either have the game covered or walk through the backdoor before the clock hits 00:00. Pick: Raiders +6.5

Total: It’s always hard to not overreact to previous weeks results in the NFL. Prior to the debacle in Jacksonville the Browns were scoring points at a solid clip. The Oakland defense is much softer than that of the Jaguars so the run game should get back on track for the Browns. There’s a possibility this is the ugliest game of the week, but it’s more likely each team hits some big plays and the game will get to the number. Pick: Over 43.5

Packers at Saints

Spread – NO -1
Moneyline –  GB -105 NO -115
Total – 55

Side: New Orleans is now 2-4 on the season and their two wins have come against two of the worst teams in the NFL in Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Of course, both wins came at home, but the step up in talent they’ll face in Green Bay will be staggering compared to their previous home games. The dome doesn’t quite look like the death trap it used to for opposing teams and the Saints offense has been average at best this season. Aaron Rodgers is starting to get in a rhythm, and the Saints D has not been good enough to expect them to slow the Packers. Pick: Packers ML -105

Total: The Packers and Saints have combined to play 13 games in 2014. The two teams are a combined 11-2 over the total on the season. However, this is the largest number either will have faced and Green Bay’s defense should be good enough to keep the Saints under 25. Jimmy Graham obviously did not look like himself last week so Drew Brees was left with Marques Colston and a bunch of inexperienced receivers to throw to. Not surprisingly he wasn’t great and the Saints dropped the game. The dome will help the Saints offense, but not enough to reach such a large total. Pick: Under 55

Redskins at Cowboys

Spread – DAL -9
Moneyline –  WAS +370 DAL -450
Total – 50

Side: It’s either Colt McCoy or a barely healthy Robert Griffin III that will be heading up the Redskins attack on Monday Night. Even with the extra day, that’s not a good sign for Washington to go against the hottest team in the NFL. Dallas’ ability to run the ball has continued on it’s historic pace and with Gavin Escobar and Terrance Williams emerging as consistent targets the Cowboys offense looks the best it has in years. They’ll control the game thoroughly and continue their tear. Cowboy Stadium is witnessing the best football its seen since its inception, and it will be rocking in front of the primitive audience. Pick: Cowboys -9

Total: Here’s where this game gets a little tougher. The Cowboys dominating the game can really go one of two ways. Either they score ultra quickly and the Redskins are forced to chase all night, or DeMarco Murray continues to terrorize opponents and the Cowboys put together long methodical touchdown drives. No matter which QB gets the nod, the Redskins are going to have a tough time scoring against the Cowboys defense. Let’s assume Dallas takes the foot off the gas at some point and the game finishes somewhere along the lines of 33-10. Pick: Under 50

Listen to Over and Under with Ken Boehlke and Jason Pothier on CBS Sports Radio 1140 every Sunday morning from 8 to 10. Follow the show on Twitter @OAU1140 and on Facebook.